Philosophy of hockey Sabremetrics: Can hockey accurately be measured?
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08-10-2012, 07:04 PM
Czech Your Math
Join Date: Jan 2006
Originally Posted by
The thing I find interesting about Gagner's game is that for many of the goals, the play seemed to appear to be more of the "high skill" variety rather than "fortunate bounce" type. Granted, there's still elements of luck even in just finding yourself open to make a nice play.
Confidence is an interesting thing, and I would suspect that part of Gagner's good fortunes came from a desperate Blackhawks team that was not playing disciplined as well. Mistakes were made and Gagner was able to capitalize.
Could just be a perfect storm, but the random chance of something like that would be truly remarkable that I have a hard time believing it was just an exceptionally rare event.
And yes you're right that Wilt was better at FT% that season (which actually makes a huge difference in the probability).
To me, it's basically the random chance of any 40-50 point scorer doing something like that.
What sticks out as most unusual to me (aside from it being a relatively mediocre player) is that he scored points on all 8 of his team's goals and it was a close game until late. If it was an 11-3 blowout or something, it wouldn't be as surprising to me.
Still, it's more like a mediocre pitcher throwing a no-hitter. Great single game feat, takes some talent for sure, but not an indication of true greatness on an all-time level or anything. I'd say the same about Sittler's 10 point game, even though he was a much better player.
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