View Single Post
08-12-2012, 07:03 PM
Registered User
Mathletic's Avatar
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: St-Augustin, Québec
Country: Canada
Posts: 13,631
vCash: 500
Not sure if this thread is reserved for people who want to present their own research but I posted various links over the years. Thought I'd share in case people missed them.

Strategies for Pulling the Goalie in Hockey
David Beaudoin and Tim B. Swartz

NHL Draft Order Based on Mathematical

Adam M. Gold


The NHL determines draft order from a lottery that favors teams that are lowest in the standings.
Losing can help a franchise acquire a coveted prospect, which encourages fans to cheer
against their favorite teams. Draft order based on mathematical elimination would force the teams
that performed poorest into a highly competitive atmosphere. The teams that are eliminated earliest
would instead have more games to earn the top picks. If substandard teams are to survive in
mediocre markets, the injustice of incentives for losing must be eradicated.


5 Conclusion
The National Hockey League (NHL) formula that considers the reverse stand-
ings to determine draft order triggers logical reasoning that can destroy emo-
tional attachments and fanaticism, without which hockey teams cannot thrive.
Losing can help a franchise acquire a higher draft pick, which encourages fans
to cheer against their favorite team. Franchises that endure poor seasonal
performance should not accept considerable rejection and departure from sup-
porters. Although the teams with the most losses receive the highest draft
picks, the promise of future success by losing in the present creates a false
sense of security. This current formula yields the distressing paradox where
success and failure become synonymous. The NHL should use my formula to
create competitive draft orders and inspire fans with passion and optimism.

Referee Analytics: An Analysis of Penalty Rates by National Hockey League Officials

A Closer Look at the Relative Age Effect in the National Hockey League

A Closer Look at the Relative Age Effect in the National Hockey League


At young ages, a few extra months of development can make a big difference in size,
strength, and athletic ability. A child who turns 5 years old in January will be nearly 20% older by
the time a child born in December has their 5th birthday. In many sports, including hockey,
children born in the early months of the calendar year get noticed by their coaches because of the
superiority they demonstrate due to their age advantage. As a result, boys born early in the year
are more likely to reach the professional ranks of the National Hockey League (NHL). The
phenomenon just described has been labeled the relative age effect (RAE). Previous work studying
the RAE in the NHL has focused on individual NHL seasons, often encompassing many of the
same players across multiple seasons. We investigate the RAE using complete data on every
player who has ever played in the NHL. We focus the majority of our analysis on Canadian born
players and examine the RAE across hockey position and hall-of-fame status. For the first time,
we provide strong evidence of when the RAE began to manifest itself in Canada. Our change point
analysis indicates that the RAE began for players born since 1951. Finally, we make a case for
what initiated this change in the way young hockey players develop, particularly in Canada, which
produced over 90% of NHL players at that time.

Last edited by Mathletic: 08-13-2012 at 05:47 PM.
Mathletic is online now   Reply With Quote