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08-13-2012, 12:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Meteor View Post
The problem is, how would you determine what number the PDO should regress to in the long run? For a team like the Rangers it should be significantly higher than 1000, while I would expect the opposite for the Leafs.
That would be a heckuva lot more work .

Ironically, a lot of the teams that benefit from great goaltending (LA, NYR both come to mind) are low shooting pct teams.

However, if you take a quick look at each player on the team, sort it... even then, you can figure out on a player by player basis. It's a baseline, and something that has become more popular than I ever imagined (for example, it's being used in European Soccer... I have no idea how that came about...), but when you get right down to it.. it's just a baseline. Back of the envelope test. It's not supposed to be some sort of perfect stat that explains everything... it's just a quick "something might not add up here."

And that's about it.

FWIW, I made an absolute mint fading Minnesota the second half of the season.

Lastly, when I first came up with this, it was at a player-level. A site called Irrelevant Oiler Fans had a post up on the end of season numbers, believe it was 07-08, I know Robert Nilsson was on the team. All the players on-ice sv% and on-ice s% numbers were listed, and the post glossed over guys at either end of the spectrum who may have got the short end of the stick. Seemed intuitive to me to pop those numbers together, on the belief that bounces could even out at either end of the ice for some guys, but not for others...

Last edited by PDO: 08-13-2012 at 12:32 AM.
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