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08-14-2012, 12:47 PM
  #534
squidz*
dun worry he's cool
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: South of the Border
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportsfan1 View Post
That's fair, to clarify Dallas didn't regress that much, it's not like Ribeiro and Souray are high impact players, but they did not improve much at all, and will be fringe playoff team like Calgary all year long. Jagr, Roy, Morrow will all break down and be ineffective, and Whitney will age, their defense is truly average at best and so is their goaltending.

Benn will be superstar in this league, but Eriksson is a good player not great, that is also true, and Ryder will not be as good this year either.
All they lost was Ott, Ribeiro, Dvorak, and Souray, but they added Jagr, Roy, Whitney, and Rome. With Rome played correctly (as a bottom pairing guy) unlike he was in Vancouver, he's actually pretty decent. Larsen is looking to build upon his rookie year, and was coming along quite well at the end of the season. They have Dillon or Oleksiak who might get their first shot on the blue line as well.

With the aging of their prospect corps, they have the same sort of depth we will have (though I of course think the quality of our depth is greater) this season in case Whitney doesn't put up 20 like he has all but twice since the lockout (17 in 05-06 but only played 63 games and 17 his first year with extremely low-scoring Phoenix). Jagr put up 19 goals in 73 games with Philly. His previous 3 NHL seasons (yes I know, big jump of KHL time) were 25, 30, and 54 goal seasons. Maybe Ryder will fall off of his last season, but people are acting like it was a freak and way better than ever possible. It was his third 30 goal season. It was his fifth (out of eight) 25+ goal season. The fewest goals he's ever scored in a healthy year is 18. It's not like "falling off" from his 35 last year is going to be that dramatic. He'll likely dip back under 30, but he didn't even set a career high for points last year. He's still a lock for at least 20, and probably at least 25.

From players gone, they've lost about 39 goals. Assume Ryder falls off by 11 goals and you get -50. They've added about 20 in Jagr, 20 in Whitney, and 20+ in Roy. That nets them up 10+ goals, which would be more than the difference between them making and missing the playoffs last season. That's not considering the fact that Goligoski will likely rebound from a down year. Larsen is improving, and Benn hasn't come close to peaking yet. I'd say the only way one could expect Dallas to miss the playoffs is if they think other teams around them improved more.

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