Power play metrics
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08-14-2012, 02:36 PM
Join Date: Dec 2010
Originally Posted by
I don't think anyone would disagree that SH/60 is a better predictor than SH. But why use either when you can use goals? Or better yet, GF/GA?
I honestly don't know how many times this can be gone over. Team shot volume is generally repeatable. Team shooting percentage is generally not - it tends to go back to league average.
Goals are a result of these two factors, and by looking at the maintainable and repeatable statistic, we have a better idea of future performance without adding randomness from shot quality and shooting percentage.
In addition, there are far more shot events than goal events and because of this it is a lot more impervious to small sample variations. You could easily have 10 PP goals in a year by blind, fluke luck, but you'd be hard pressed to generate 20% of your entire shot volume by luck.
I see a lot of people constantly talking about GF and goal differential being more useful than shots. The above reasons are why people with statistical backgrounds tend to favour shooting rates.
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