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08-15-2012, 08:23 AM
Czech Your Math
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Originally Posted by mindmasher View Post
I honestly don't know how many times this can be gone over. Team shot volume is generally repeatable. Team shooting percentage is generally not - it tends to go back to league average.

Goals are a result of these two factors, and by looking at the maintainable and repeatable statistic, we have a better idea of future performance without adding randomness from shot quality and shooting percentage.

In addition, there are far more shot events than goal events and because of this it is a lot more impervious to small sample variations. You could easily have 10 PP goals in a year by blind, fluke luck, but you'd be hard pressed to generate 20% of your entire shot volume by luck.

I see a lot of people constantly talking about GF and goal differential being more useful than shots. The above reasons are why people with statistical backgrounds tend to favour shooting rates.
Shots may be miscounted, as it appears happens in some arenas.

I would like to see the studies and data that correlate PP shots/60 to PP% (PPG/PPO) & PP Shooting%.

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