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08-15-2012, 10:42 AM
Czech Your Math
Join Date: Jan 2006
Originally Posted by
I think we are starting to come to the conclusion that the adjustment may not be the same % allocation for team/goalie for every team. While 15% (or 25%) may work as an NHL average, there are certain teams at the extremes where that % may need to be adjusted based on PK minutes and success during those minutes. I think we may be able to borrow from some of the great work on expected goals for goalies that use these inputs.
Teams should shoulder more of the scaled SV% credit with 5v4 min/5v5 minutes as the deciding factor or input.
This still comes back to the tough GVT pill to swallow of a single player costing his team 20+ goals over a replacement goalie. I can't see that ever being the case (unless I personally was playing goalie for said team). NHL goalies just aren't "bad" to that order of magnitude outside of MAF in the 2012 playoffs.
I think offensive GVT is just about perfect, and we may be able to refine dGVT and gGVT to match it.
Does anyone have a GVT calculating spreadsheet to start from?
There's definitely more refinement that could be done. I think that many goalies at/near the top and at the bottom is an indication that the GR of 75% is probably too high. Maybe it should be 50-60%?
Has anyone done a study on goalies switching teams? That might help factor out the team component of SV% and, along with factoring in other data, could help determine a better number.
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