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08-16-2012, 12:31 PM
  #22
overpass
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5 vs 5

I used behindthenet.ca's .xls files, with data from the 2007-08 season through the 2010-11 season.

Using the binomial approximation to a normal distribution, I calculated the z-score for each NHL player's on-ice shooting percentage over this time period, where z-score = (On-ice GF - On-Ice SOGF*LgSH%)/(Standard deviation calculated using binomial approximation)

Here are the players with the highest and lowest z-scores

Player Z-score 5-on-5 on-ice SH%
SIDNEYCROSBY 6.12 11.7%
HENRIKSEDIN 5.49 11.1%
DANIELSEDIN 4.98 10.9%
MARIANGABORIK 4.93 11.4%
BOBBYRYAN 4.91 11.3%
EVGENIMALKIN 4.88 11.0%
RYANGETZLAF 4.75 10.8%
ILYAKOVALCHUK 4.70 10.8%
COREYPERRY 4.37 10.6%
DANYHEATLEY 4.33 10.5%
JASONSPEZZA 4.31 10.7%
ALEXTANGUAY 4.15 10.8%
NATHANHORTON 4.10 10.5%
ALEXBURROWS 4.08 10.6%
JAROMEIGINLA 4.07 10.3%
RYANWHITNEY 4.02 10.8%
PAULSTASTNY 3.95 10.6%
MARTINST. LOUIS 3.93 10.3%
MIKERIBEIRO 3.90 10.5%
NICKLASBACKSTROM 3.88 10.2%
ALEXANDERSEMIN 3.78 10.5%
PAVELDATSYUK 3.68 10.2%
DARRYLBOYCE 3.62 14.9%
ALEXOVECHKIN 3.59 10.8%
JEFFSCHULTZ 3.59 10.3%
STEVENSTAMKOS 3.58 10.6%
NICLASHAVELID 3.37 11.0%
ALEXANDEROVECHKIN 3.32 10.5%
BRENDENMORROW 3.32 10.4%
JOETHORNTON 3.27 10.0%

Player Z-score 5-on-5 on-ice SH%
TRAVISMOEN -3.90 5.6%
SHAWNTHORNTON -3.73 5.5%
COLTONORR -3.71 4.5%
RADEKMARTINEK -3.62 5.9%
ADAMHALL -3.60 5.0%
BRENDANWITT -3.59 5.5%
DEREKMEECH -3.52 4.5%
CRAIGADAMS -3.49 5.4%
RYANHOLLWEG -3.46 2.6%
DONALDBRASHEAR -3.42 4.4%
STEPHANEVEILLEUX -3.33 5.6%
JEFFTAMBELLINI -3.29 5.6%
ANDYGREENE -3.27 6.4%
NATETHOMPSON -3.22 5.5%
RODPELLEY -3.18 4.6%
TODDMARCHANT -3.12 5.9%
SAMUELPAHLSSON -3.08 6.1%
RAITISIVANANS -3.05 4.3%
FREDRIKSJOSTROM -3.04 5.9%
TIMSTAPLETON -3.04 3.4%
DANIELWINNIK -2.97 6.3%
SCOTTGOMEZ -2.95 6.8%
ANTTIPIHLSTROM -2.92 3.8%
TOMWANDELL -2.92 5.2%
ANDREWMURRAY -2.91 5.5%
THOMASPOCK -2.77 4.1%
JAMIEMCGINN -2.76 5.4%
ANDREWPETERS -2.75 2.4%
MIKEWEAVER -2.73 6.6%
DALLASDRAKE -2.69 3.6%

Generally speaking we see skilled players outperforming the league average and "less skilled" NHL players underperforming the league average in on-ice shooting percentage.

Taking the standard deviation of the z-scores, I get 1.41. If random variation was the only factor, the standard deviation of the z-scores would be 1.00.

Following the process from this blog post:


Step 7: 838
Step 8: 0.49
Step 9: 860

So, given a player's on-ice shooting percentage from 2007-08 to 2010-11, the best predictor of his 2011-12 on-ice shooting percentage is his 2007-08 through 2010-11 shooting percentage plus 860 shots at a league average shooting percentage. Because Sidney Crosby was on the ice for 1867 shots at a 11.7 SH%, his predicted 2011-12% would be 10.7%.

Best and worst predicted 2011-12 5 vs 5 on-ice shooting percentages

Player Predicted 5vs5 on-ice SH%
SIDNEYCROSBY 10.7%
HENRIKSEDIN 10.4%
MARIANGABORIK 10.3%
BOBBYRYAN 10.3%
EVGENIMALKIN 10.2%
DANIELSEDIN 10.2%
RYANGETZLAF 10.1%
ILYAKOVALCHUK 10.1%
JASONSPEZZA 10.0%
ALEXTANGUAY 10.0%

Player Predicted 5vs5 on-ice SH%
TRAVISMOEN 6.6%
COLTONORR 6.6%
SHAWNTHORNTON 6.6%
ADAMHALL 6.6%
BRENDANWITT 6.7%
DEREKMEECH 6.7%
CRAIGADAMS 6.7%
RADEKMARTINEK 6.7%
DONALDBRASHEAR 6.7%
STEPHANEVEILLEUX 6.8%

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