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08-16-2012, 02:24 PM
Czech Your Math
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Good work. I think your sample size needs to be much larger to draw many conclusions. Having 15-20 sample size for each of the top 5, instead of 5 will increase the reliability of the data by a large amount.

One thing I wonder, from looking at what data you do have, is if teams in the middle are "reaching" with their first picks. IOW, they've already lost out on top 5 type of talent, and know they have another pick in the middle of second round. I wonder if they are taking more chances on high risk prospects that don't pan out quite as often, but when they do perform a little better. If the pick is a dud, they probably get a player not that much worse in the second round. It's something I thought of while looking at the data, but probably just my imagination.

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