Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass
5 vs 5
I used behindthenet.ca's .xls files, with data from the 2007-08 season through the 2010-11 season.
Using the binomial approximation to a normal distribution, I calculated the z-score for each NHL player's on-ice shooting percentage over this time period, where z-score = (On-ice GF - On-Ice SOGF*LgSH%)/(Standard deviation calculated using binomial approximation)
Here are the players with the highest and lowest z-scores
| Player | Z-score | 5-on-5 on-ice SH% | | SIDNEYCROSBY | 6.12 | 11.7% | | HENRIKSEDIN | 5.49 | 11.1% | | DANIELSEDIN | 4.98 | 10.9% | | MARIANGABORIK | 4.93 | 11.4% | | BOBBYRYAN | 4.91 | 11.3% | | EVGENIMALKIN | 4.88 | 11.0% | | RYANGETZLAF | 4.75 | 10.8% | | ILYAKOVALCHUK | 4.70 | 10.8% | | COREYPERRY | 4.37 | 10.6% | | DANYHEATLEY | 4.33 | 10.5% | | JASONSPEZZA | 4.31 | 10.7% | | ALEXTANGUAY | 4.15 | 10.8% | | NATHANHORTON | 4.10 | 10.5% | | ALEXBURROWS | 4.08 | 10.6% | | JAROMEIGINLA | 4.07 | 10.3% | | RYANWHITNEY | 4.02 | 10.8% | | PAULSTASTNY | 3.95 | 10.6% | | MARTINST. LOUIS | 3.93 | 10.3% | | MIKERIBEIRO | 3.90 | 10.5% | | NICKLASBACKSTROM | 3.88 | 10.2% | | ALEXANDERSEMIN | 3.78 | 10.5% | | PAVELDATSYUK | 3.68 | 10.2% | | DARRYLBOYCE | 3.62 | 14.9% | | ALEXOVECHKIN | 3.59 | 10.8% | | JEFFSCHULTZ | 3.59 | 10.3% | | STEVENSTAMKOS | 3.58 | 10.6% | | NICLASHAVELID | 3.37 | 11.0% | | ALEXANDEROVECHKIN | 3.32 | 10.5% | | BRENDENMORROW | 3.32 | 10.4% | | JOETHORNTON | 3.27 | 10.0% |
| Player | Z-score | 5-on-5 on-ice SH% | | TRAVISMOEN | -3.90 | 5.6% | | SHAWNTHORNTON | -3.73 | 5.5% | | COLTONORR | -3.71 | 4.5% | | RADEKMARTINEK | -3.62 | 5.9% | | ADAMHALL | -3.60 | 5.0% | | BRENDANWITT | -3.59 | 5.5% | | DEREKMEECH | -3.52 | 4.5% | | CRAIGADAMS | -3.49 | 5.4% | | RYANHOLLWEG | -3.46 | 2.6% | | DONALDBRASHEAR | -3.42 | 4.4% | | STEPHANEVEILLEUX | -3.33 | 5.6% | | JEFFTAMBELLINI | -3.29 | 5.6% | | ANDYGREENE | -3.27 | 6.4% | | NATETHOMPSON | -3.22 | 5.5% | | RODPELLEY | -3.18 | 4.6% | | TODDMARCHANT | -3.12 | 5.9% | | SAMUELPAHLSSON | -3.08 | 6.1% | | RAITISIVANANS | -3.05 | 4.3% | | FREDRIKSJOSTROM | -3.04 | 5.9% | | TIMSTAPLETON | -3.04 | 3.4% | | DANIELWINNIK | -2.97 | 6.3% | | SCOTTGOMEZ | -2.95 | 6.8% | | ANTTIPIHLSTROM | -2.92 | 3.8% | | TOMWANDELL | -2.92 | 5.2% | | ANDREWMURRAY | -2.91 | 5.5% | | THOMASPOCK | -2.77 | 4.1% | | JAMIEMCGINN | -2.76 | 5.4% | | ANDREWPETERS | -2.75 | 2.4% | | MIKEWEAVER | -2.73 | 6.6% | | DALLASDRAKE | -2.69 | 3.6% |
Generally speaking we see skilled players outperforming the league average and "less skilled" NHL players underperforming the league average in on-ice shooting percentage.
Taking the standard deviation of the z-scores, I get 1.41. If random variation was the only factor, the standard deviation of the z-scores would be 1.00.
Following the process from this blog post:
Step 7: 838
Step 8: 0.49
Step 9: 860
So, given a player's on-ice shooting percentage from 2007-08 to 2010-11, the best predictor of his 2011-12 on-ice shooting percentage is his 2007-08 through 2010-11 shooting percentage plus 860 shots at a league average shooting percentage. Because Sidney Crosby was on the ice for 1867 shots at a 11.7 SH%, his predicted 2011-12% would be 10.7%.
Best and worst predicted 2011-12 5 vs 5 on-ice shooting percentages
| Player | Predicted 5vs5 on-ice SH% | | SIDNEYCROSBY | 10.7% | | HENRIKSEDIN | 10.4% | | MARIANGABORIK | 10.3% | | BOBBYRYAN | 10.3% | | EVGENIMALKIN | 10.2% | | DANIELSEDIN | 10.2% | | RYANGETZLAF | 10.1% | | ILYAKOVALCHUK | 10.1% | | JASONSPEZZA | 10.0% | | ALEXTANGUAY | 10.0% |
| Player | Predicted 5vs5 on-ice SH% | | TRAVISMOEN | 6.6% | | COLTONORR | 6.6% | | SHAWNTHORNTON | 6.6% | | ADAMHALL | 6.6% | | BRENDANWITT | 6.7% | | DEREKMEECH | 6.7% | | CRAIGADAMS | 6.7% | | RADEKMARTINEK | 6.7% | | DONALDBRASHEAR | 6.7% | | STEPHANEVEILLEUX | 6.8% |
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Nice work.
I can't remember if the data at behindthenet includes empty net goals.
I know the data is ostensibly 5 v 5 only, but 6 v 5 situations may have been included.
What is the aggregate on-ice shooting percentage in your sample?
If it's not almost exactly 0.08, then empty net goals haven't been removed.