Tyler Seguin Projections
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08-17-2012, 07:11 AM
Join Date: Oct 2006
Originally Posted by
Bob Mand takes a comprehensive look at it in his article, including statistical analyses, video and expert opinion from Bill Ladd. All very timely for this discussion. Well done Bob.
After leading the OHL in scoring during the 2009-10 season with 106 points, many expected the youngster to step right into the Bruins’ lineup and contribute.
Yet, his eighteen year-old 2010-11 season with the Bruins caused some to back down from similar forecasts until his coming-out party in May: A four-point period against Tampa in game-two of the Eastern Conference Finals.
But it was his age-nineteen season that truly evinced this young forward’s potential. Finishing a remarkable tenth in the League in even-strength per-minute point-production (2.69 P/60m),Tyler Seguin emerged as one of the best forwards in the game. In 2011-12 he became just the first player in five seasons (Thomas Vanek in 2006-07) to finish among the top-thirty scorers in the League while averaging less than seventeen minutes a night.
How brightly will his star shine? Looking at historically similar players gives us some hints. Few players saw such significant production-jumps so early in their careers. Comparable jumps from players’ rookie to sophomore season in recent years include Marian Gaborik, Vincent Lecavalier, Rick Nash, Mike Comrie, and Michal Handzus.
Few players combine Seguin’s elite skating-game and brilliant puck-skills at such a young age. For much of the 2011-12 season, the youngster flirted with point-per-game pace – and analysis of his talents, performance and comparisons with historically similar players imply that 80-90 points should be well within reach.
For all but the true cream of the NHL crop, the century-mark in points requires a perfect storm of fortune and talent. While Tyler Seguin hasn’t proven he belongs alongside the like of Malkin and Crosby – he took great strides in 2011-12 and placed himself in the discussion for elite scoring consideration down the road.
Good find, although I never heard Chia/Julien and/or Cam ever communicated their 'forecast' as to what they thought he would produce in year one as an 18 year old.
As it is with most fan bases, the difficulty with keeping things in perspective/realistic, are often an issue for us fans, and during year one, those who made the predictions like 20-25 for 45pts were left disappointed/concerned. I thought he would produce a bit more, I was more disappointed with the hesitation to his game, but again, this was more about me forgetting that the kid was just that, a kid, learning to play a man`s game.
Last year he made tremendous strides, and I`m not speaking about his offensive output which is/was great, it was how much he improved away from the puck. In an organization, playing for a coach who insists on defensive adherence, he`ll need to continue that trend of improving, but he showed last season, he`s coachable and willing, two things that are paramount for a young player to getting stronger IMO.
Kid`s going to be special, and were all lucky to have received such a great gift from MLSE
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