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08-17-2012, 10:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Sureves View Post
1. You can think it's not true if you want, but it is

2. Using save percentage ON (relative to team) is not a good idea because it's heavily driven by noise in the short run and will regress towards the mean in the long run. Fancy way to say it's mostly luck. Same with shooting percentage. The study done is performed to illustrate who had the better year - regardless of reasons (luck perhaps) - in terms of net positive production, not to determine who is the better overall player in the long-run.

As such, you don't need to account for sv percent on, or shooting percent on.
I disagree. SV% on when compared to qual comp ratings gives you an indication of the defensive ability of a defensive player. If they are matched up against 1st line opposition, (meaning they have 1-2 highest qual comp), that level of opposition is going to have an expected SH%. There is a relation between qual comp and SV% on a team level. You need to find out where your defender lies against the population. Is he posting higher than expected SV% relative to his qual comp or lower?

Defensive skaters can affect this by clearing out the crease and preventing close shots. The "noise" are usually just variables you may not have considered or have a difficult time measuring. Don't be so quick to throw logic out as soon as you run into results that seem to contain "noise". Try to adjust for situations/variables that may be contributing to it.

I obviously do not like this analysis for forwards' defensive ability, but for defenders, I think it has merit because they impact the number of high % shots.

wgknestrick is offline   Reply With Quote