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08-17-2012, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by wgknestrick View Post
I disagree. SV% on when compared to qual comp ratings gives you an indication of the defensive ability of a defensive player. If they are matched up against 1st line opposition, (meaning they have 1-2 highest qual comp), that level of opposition is going to have an expected SH%. There is a relation between qual comp and SV% on a team level. You need to find out where your defender lies against the population. Is he posting higher than expected SV% relative to his qual comp or lower?

Defensive skaters can affect this by clearing out the crease and preventing close shots. The "noise" are usually just variables you may not have considered or have a difficult time measuring. Don't be so quick to throw logic out as soon as you run into results that seem to contain "noise". Try to adjust for situations/variables that may be contributing to it.

I obviously do not like this analysis for forwards' defensive ability, but for defenders, I think it has merit because they impact the number of high % shots.
I'm not sure I entirely agree with that. Shooting percentage is widely considered to be erratic and not really a good representation of how good someone is at shooting the puck - at least when we look at only one year. Here were the 2012 top 30:

Curtis Glencross
Steven Stamkos
Jiri Hudler
Kyle Wellwood
Jordan Eberle
Nathan Horton
David Perron
Tyler Ennis
Martin Erat
Sergei Kostitsyn
Milan Lucic
Jordan Staal
Brad Marchand
Michael Ryder
Tyler Bozak
Maxime Talbot
Milan Michalek
Chris Kelly
Matt Moulson
David Desharnais
Valtteri Filppula
Scott Hartnell
Patrik Elias
David Krejci
Kyle Okposo
Nik Antropov
Teddy Purcell
Eric Nystrom
Jonathan Toews
Dainius Zubrus

Only 6 of 30 (bolded) scored 30 goals or more this year. I'm not sure it's fair to say those with higher shooting percentages (equivalently cause a goalie to have a low save percentage) are those who are of higher quality of competition.

I'm not of the opinion that in looking at two defenseman on the same team with exactly equal Corsi QoC, the one with the higher save percentage ON is the better defender. I think that's more based on luck than anything. I would much prefer to normalize the save percentages and then look at the GA relative to the team in question per 60. In other words, I'd look at shots against.

Again, this is kind of off-topic to what I posted specifically, but still an interesting discussion for sure.

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