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08-17-2012, 03:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
If one completely filters out SV% while on ice (during SA), then doesn't that penalize d-men which prevent high quality shots? So a d-man who takes chances that either results in no shots or often in a high quality shot will appear better than one which prevents most high quality shots, but allows more low quality shots.

I understand the luck component in the shorter term, so maybe it would be better to see results both ways. In a longer term study, one could get an average of SV% on/off for each d-man and adjust based on that, right?
To your first paragraph, that's right, and I definitely understand the criticisms you have for it because they are warranted. If a defenseman is doing bone-headed plays on a regular basis and causing breakaways for the other team, naturally that would cause them to have a lower save percentage ON and that would be representative of how good (or bad) they are defensively.

Again of course the problem comes from the fact that it's too difficult in the short run (ie. a season) to see if it's just luck or their fault. If you looked at a wider sample of seasons it would clarify the result a lot and would definitely be interesting to do.

Maybe something to consider when I have some more time.

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