Off-season Armchair GM Thread Part IX
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08-18-2012, 01:25 PM
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Jose
Originally Posted by
No one ever knows what this season will bring until you see it on the ice but people can make fairly educated guesses based on what they have. You didn't know what kind of season they'd have two seasons ago when they had Wallin in the top four with Vlasic but people knew the blue line was in trouble with him in that spot and a lack of PMD depth. It's no different here except for the lockout does throw in its own little wrinkle. So if there is a season, this team with its lack of forward depth being addressed is going to kill them. Even with whatever scenarios you have for any of the top players. If they don't get depth scoring up front, they will falter in the playoffs, it's that simple. And they don't really have that with what they got right now and the only guy that I see on the team right now that has a shot is Wingels but he needs more help than Handzus, Burish, Galiardi, and Desjardins.
You got Wingels right. Not enough track record. Handzus used to produce, but his defensive downside has accelerated. Galiardi is not enough track record. Desi is OK for 4th line, not good enough for 3rd. Same for Burish.
You don't know with certainty, but their is a strong correlation on playoff performance track record for lower line players. They need to chip in at .3pts/game pace or higher for playoffs to be considered a performer and it does carry from year to year and team to team with rare exception. Conversely, if a player doesn't hit the mark, it is extremely unlikely that he will do so in the future. Even DW made the point long ago and seems to have forgotten it since. I have made the calls on players like Malhotra before they actually performed for the Sharks (or didn't as the case may be).
Management needs to pay more attention to stats and not offer overrides for vets. There was no excuse for putting White in the lineup. White had a goal diff for the year that was a full goal to the negative between GFA and GAA when he played. A 1.0 differential to the negative or positive is hard to accomplish for any player on any team.
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