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08-21-2012, 04:06 PM
  #293
Talks to Goalposts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MXD View Post
Desharnais also shot only 98 times, and is much more biased towards passing than St-Louis is (who shot 141 times in 00-01). There no reason to think Desharnais will shot significantly more. While 16.3 is high, it's not THAT high for a guy who's primarily a playmaker. A MUCH better Example -- Sergei Kostitsyn has a career shooting PCT superior to 16.3. Or even Mike Ribeiro, whose career shooting % is over 14 % (and who shoots more than Desharnais to begin with)

Actually, Kostitsyn shot a bit more (on a per game basis) than Desharnais last season (minimal difference) and was used two minutes less than Desharnais. Nobody is even suggesting Kostitsyn's shooting % will go down (it actually went down from a whopping 24.7% from the prior season to a more normal 17.5%) right now, because he's a guy who doesn't shoot that much -- and the same can be said for Desharnais.
As much as I'll usually argue for shooting% regression in most cases, this should be correct for Desharnais. DD's shot rate per minute on even strength is worse than most grinders, at about 1/3rd of Pacioretty's and 2/5ths of Cole's. Someone that selective (Like Tanguay or S. Kostitsyn as major comparisons) is going to have a high natural shooting%.

The guy due for a shooting regression is Pacioretty, but only at even strength. He under shot on the powerplay to the point where the two will even out.

Cole is a very high even strength shooter (~12% over 4 previous seasons) also and Pacioretty should be at least average for a top six forward (~9% is average, he's shot at 10.2% on even strength the past two years). Factoring in defenseman shots the line should score between 9-10% of on ice even strength shots in a given year rather than league average 8.2%. So look for a global regression of about 10% in the line's even strength scoring. That just takes them down from one of the top 5 regular Even strength scoring lines in the league to about league average for a primary scoring line.

The underlying message should be that Pacioretty and Cole are both really dangerous scorers on even strength. Pacioretty is brilliant all-round, Cole tends to be an even strength specialist.

Pretty unlikely Cole scores 10 PP goals again though, his goal total is the one most likely going down from last years.


As for the star player who broke in at 25 argument.

Remember that you're only looking at successful cases, there are plenty that don't pan out that way. Its certainly not impossible Desharnais has more development but its also reasonable to thing he's hitting his peak right now.

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