Scouting, Statistics, and St. Louis
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08-21-2012, 08:26 PM
Join Date: Nov 2007
Originally Posted by
So you cannot compare players from different leagues?
How do scouts do it then?
(Hint: You can do it with the numbers as well. It's actually one of the easiest factors involved in my analysis.)
I don't use midget AAA numbers, for two reasons:
the only ones I have access to are from Quebec, and the further away a season is from the player's pro years, the less useful it is.
Exactly. There's nothing I'm doing that couldn't have been done at the time. Perhaps not with precisely the same results, but with similar results. And given the very rough nature of these results, similar is good enough. It could have served as a very useful second opinion to scouts, saying "are you really
sure we shouldn't even draft this guy in the 11th round, because it's quite possible he's going to be really good?"
There's no sure bet, there would be many misses if you used only the numbers. Which isn't a thing, because there are also many misses when you use only the scouts. Using both, using all information available to you, would surely be the best strategy. Get someone who knows how to interpret junior numbers, someone who can see that
Patrice Lefebvre's 1985 numbers are not impressive at all, and his 1986
are only mildly so. I checked the results, the system would not have suggested drafting him in 1985 at all, and for 1986 and 1987 would peg him as a very late-round pick, which seems pretty reasonable for a player of his type. There are illusions in his stats, which you can largely see through if you understand them.
Never claimed that scouts cannot do not compare players from different leagues. The Sunday afternoon games in Ottawa/OHL, Sunday evening game in Gatineau/QMJHL are the most scouted games.
Scouts not only use elite midget numbers but the Midget espoir numbers and numbers from equivalent leagues across Canada and the world plus the various summer leagues and international competitions.They make sure they get them. Leave them out and your developmental analysis will be incomplete.
You are in the ballpark for Patrice Lefebvre. Shawinigan drafted him seriously doubting that he was an NHL draft pick. Likewise Stephan and Patrick Lebeau. Shawinigan had a perspective that they wanted their top Midget AAA players around for five seasons as franchise cornerstones.Their scouts nailed their Midget AAA picks in these situations, optimizing the team benefits..
That said, Patrice Lefebvre illustrates the reluctance to draft Martin St. Louis and Eric Perrin. Lefebvre had fewer incompletes and unanswered questions.
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