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08-21-2012, 10:55 PM
Iain Fyffe
Hockey fact-checker
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Fredericton, NB
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
If you are going to compare the numbers against the eyes for St Louis in 1994, you can't use your system that you have published in Hockey Prospectus. That was developed using post-1994 data, including St Louis himself, so it isn't a fair comparison to the information that scouts had in 1994. A fair comparison would use a system developed using solely available data from 1994.
I've already addressed this. Using information available at that time, you wouldn't arrive at exactly the same results. But they would be close. Seriously, I've been studying this issue for a decade now. You're assuming the results are unique to the specific data set used, and that's not true. Any set of years you use will result in results of about the same shape, which does not include St. Louis being behind 520 other players. Any system built on scoring stats simply will not allow this, unless you drastically underestimate the quality of the ECAC or irrationally punish players under 5-10.

As I said earlier, I should have used another example, because St. Louis allows this red herring of a response. He's just the most visible example, because he exemplifies the extreme bias small players once faced from scouts using their eyes. This bias no longer exists to nearly the same extent as it once did.

The articles on Hockey Prospectus to date are largely for fun, as is spelled out often enough in them.

Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Okay prove it, go to a game or watch it on tv when it starts again and let us know what type of career each 1st year player is going to have.
I'd like to see a rating for every draft-eligible player, at least for the leagues my system covers. I can produce my ratings for a season in a few hours of collecting data and processing results.

Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
The drafting is getting a bit better than it used to be but it isn't science in any sense of the word.
I'd say it's gotten more than a bit better, but there's still room for improvement.

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