Scouting, Statistics, and St. Louis
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08-21-2012, 11:44 PM
Join Date: Nov 2007
Originally Posted by
If I weren't in high school at the time, maybe I would have been. But you're dancing right 'round the point,
which is that any team could have produced a very similar system using data available at that time
. There's nothing magical about the present day that allows this type of calculation to be done. You'd have just needed the knowledge and effort to do it.
Yeah, maybe I should publish a year-by-year list of the best picks according to the system at Hockey Prospectus, with the series to go up to the current day in the end. Oh, it looks like my past self already though of that (but was I actually there to suggest it to myself?) and has already put almost 20 years worth of info up. Only a dozen more to go before we hit the present day.
It's like you think this is some new thing, and not something that has many years of work put into it, with much detail available online.
Teams did produce such numerical models but the models did not allow for players to take seven seasons post draft to make a team as a regular as was the case for Martin St. Louis.
Go beyond the size variable and you have similar situations with Adam Oates, Alex Burrows, Josh Gorges, Brian Rafalski and others who were never drafted. In fact there is a net advantage to not being drafted as opposed to being drafted late, since the player can then choose the best development path for him with independent teams, enjoying the benefits of free agency not limited by the 50 contract limit that NHL teams have.
Basically the old model and your efforts show one thing, that developmental time post draft should be stretched well beyond the previously accepted limits.
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