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08-22-2012, 07:23 PM
Iain Fyffe
Hockey fact-checker
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Fredericton, NB
Country: Canada
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Projectinating is not difficult

When I first brought up the Martin St. Louis example, I said that numerical analysis would suggest his future value. I did not say that only my current system would do so, and although the discussion evolved into one about that system in particular, it is not only about that system.

As much as I like to believe the Projectinator has some clever insights built into it, such a system is not rocket science. So I took an hour earlier today and built another projection system for the QMJHL, based on players who played in that league in the 1970/71 season, and their subsequent pro career to 1980/81. I then used this very crude system to project the careers of QMJHL players after that season. The output in this case is peak (best 5 of 10 seasons) points-per-game production at the NHL level, assuming a scoring environment of 3.4 goals per game. Results for some interesting players (including all the highest ratings):

PlayerSeasonEst PPG
Crosby S20061.62
Lemieux M19841.55
LaFontaine P19831.40
Daigle A19931.32
Briere D19961.31
Lecavalier V19981.26
Turgeon P19871.20
Bouchard P20021.15
Hawerchuk D19811.09
Carson J19860.74
Ribeiro M19980.74
Richards B19980.73
Perreault Y19910.71
Damphousse V19860.70
Lebeau S19880.69
Lebeau P19890.67
Turgeon S19830.62
Lefebvre P19870.62

That literally took me an hour, including the time it took me to collect the data in the first place (I used hockeyDB, needing the SIHR site only for a few birthdays). If I can put something together that produces fairly convincing results in that little time, you can imagine what can be done with extensive research. Just like any numerical ranking, some will be projected better by the scouts, some by the numbers, and many (typically including the very best players) will be more or less equally rated by the two.

And please note: none of the above players are included in the data set used to develop the estimator.

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