View Single Post
Old
08-22-2012, 09:00 PM
  #1
Doctor No
Mod Supervisor
Retired?
 
Doctor No's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 24,354
vCash: 500
Victory-Important Goals/Points

Just throwing out a broad topic that may or may not have legs.

One way to measure the distinction between critical goals (say, an overtime goal) and non-critical goals (say, the tenth goal in a 10-1 victory) would be to credit the goal (and assists) with the difference in win probability that results from the goal.

For instance (and with made up probabilities), an overtime goal might increase the chance of victory from 50% to 100%, and so one would credit the goal 0.5 V-I Goals.

On the other end of the coin, the tenth goal in a 10-1 victory might increase the chance of victory from 99.99995% to 99.99998%, and so one would credit the goal 0.00003 V-I Goals.

This might be a way to distinguish between players who get their points in different situations. My guess it that the players who rank highly in V-I Goals and V-I Points are similar to those who rank highly in (regular) Goals and Points, but I haven't done the legwork.

Doctor No is offline   Reply With Quote