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08-23-2012, 10:31 AM
Join Date: Jun 2011
I know GWG isn't the same thing (in fact it's a borderline useless stat, but I digress), but there has been work done on players with high GWG numbers, and those do tend to be players who simply score a lot of goals.
I personally think score-tied values would be enough. It's documented, in terms of scoring chances and shot differentials, that there are scoring effects (the teams that are down tend to outshoot those in the lead due to strategic changes), so score tied would be the most fair method of measuring critical goals scored. I don't see any way a weighting system could be implemented based on chance of victory, since we have no legitimate way of determining such a value; there are too many variables at a given moment in a given game for us to begin to accurately describe such a thing. I know the bookies do a decent job of it, but they only have to do it well enough to put up odds that cover their bets; they can cover any inaccuracy by altering the spread to give themselves a buffer.
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