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08-23-2012, 09:52 AM
No Ben! No!
Join Date: Oct 2004
Sounds like a variation of FanGraphs' WPA stat for baseball:
There aren't as many individual events to collect in hockey obviously, but I'm sure you could calculate the win probability added from a goal given the context of the game (2-2, 5-1, etc.), as well as the time of the goal (a tiebreaking goal with 2 seconds remaining adding more to WPA than a tiebreaking goal with 10 minutes remaining) and minus the reverse.
If you adhere to shot percentage being more a matter of luck than skill (I'm not convinced, but just saying) you could ignore goals altogether and just calculate the above for shots for and against. If your typical shot has a 9% chance of going in, you credit the shot with 9% of the WPA a goal would've provided at that time and context and the reverse for all shots against.
It would be interesting to see if such a statistic would follow a similar trend as it does for baseball where it's not very predictive ("clutch" doesn't exist) but can serve as a "storytelling" stat.
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