View Single Post
08-23-2012, 10:50 AM
Student Of The Game
seventieslord's Avatar
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Regina, SK
Country: Canada
Posts: 30,647
vCash: 500
Originally Posted by sjaustin77 View Post
I don't know which one is more important but I wouldn't assume QOT is always more important than QOC. Depending on how a player is used QOT could be closer than QOC. On your team you play with a lot of the same teammates even if it is in different quantities. With QOC you could always be matched up with an easier line which will give a big difference.

I think in general both might be overstated but hardly irrelevant and the percentage difference will be much greater than 2-3% even among top defensemen. While they are all NHL players and some 1st liners will play with or against some 4th liners that might even things out some; there are huge differences even in the way "top pairing" defenders are used. Most top defenders if used to shutdown the oppositions top lines will have a fairly similar QOC. Some aren't used that way though. Some are used as an offensive #1 defenseman and some are used as shutdown #1 defenseman, while others are used more evenly.

Let's use Chara and Yandle as examples. Both considered 1st pairing or number one Dmen.
The median 1st line forward scored 62 points last year.
The median 2nd line forward scored 41 points.

Generally Chara is always on the ice against 1st line forwards. Yandle is generally on the ice against 2nd line forwards. For the most part that will be their average QOC. That 21 point difference is huge. Chara would be playing QOC that is 51% better than Yandle's by points scored. My biggest problem is with the systems. I don't think anyone knows how to measure the difference between players now. What does QOC of .093 vs .046 vs -.023 mean? How much better is each player than the other one?

I am working on my own system basically based on Pts/60 instead of +/- or Shots. I use all positive numbers so that you can more directly compare all players across the league. I have done more work on QOT than QOC so far because I can't find the data I need in an easy to use form yet for each players opponents.

Here are my QOC ratings for a few players weighted by ice time vs each player:

Chara - 3.195
Boychuk - 2.904
Karlsson - 2.688
Weber - 2.973
Pietrangelo - 2.744

So Chara played:
7% harder competition than Weber
10% over Boychuk
16% over Pietrangelo
19% over Karlsson.

That matches what my eyes tell me when I watch those players play. I'm interested to do more players like Gorges, Girardi, McDonagh but it could be a while unless I find an easier way to do it. I think those three will closely match or beat Chara on QOC.
Hopefully you are referring only to even strength.

seventieslord is offline   Reply With Quote