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08-23-2012, 01:00 PM
Iain Fyffe
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Originally Posted by FootKnight View Post
Wouldn't goals that give a team a 3 or 4 goal lead increase the chance of victory more than goals that give a team a 1 or 2 goal lead? A team is more likely to win with a 3 goal lead than a 1 goal lead, but I don't know if I'd call those goals more critical.
No. The biggest move towards winning a game is going from being tied to being a goal ahead. Goals that increase leads after that each have less and less value, because you already have a lead, and you might not need those goals at all.

A team being 3 goals ahead is more likely to win a game than a team 1 goal ahead. But the additional likelihood of winning that the first team earned by going from two goals to three goals is significantly less that the additional likelihood gained by going from tied to 1 ahead.

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