David Desharnais next contract
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08-26-2012, 09:53 PM
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Canberra, Australia
Originally Posted by
Wait a minute. I said DD will probably get better, and could hit 70 points. You have argued against that possibility. Now you say he CAN achieve 68 points?!?! You basically agreed with me with this post. Talk about a whole bunch of talking in circles...sigh..
My estimate was from statistics 101. My apologies for not explaining it.
I'm expecting Desharnais to be a 60 point player just like last year. However, the intrinsic "statistical noise" on 60 is 7.75 (the square root of 60), which rounds to 8. That means I think that Desharnais will get between 52 and 68 points approximately 70% of the time, and between 44 and 76 points about 95% of the time. A player of constant skill can have and will have statistical fluctuations in production.
You can look up the normal approximation to the poisson distribution online or in any introductory statistics textbook. Or you can take my word that the intrinsic statistical noise on the number of points is the square root of the number of points.
Note that this is the intrinsic noise, it doesn't include the noise due to injuries, changing teammates, etc. Due to those factors you'll find that most players in the NHL have much larger fluctuations in the number of points than the square root of the average number of points.
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