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08-26-2012, 09:51 PM
  #55
surge1979
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Amended Revenue Projection

Here is an updated revenue projection based on comments recieved:

Ticket Revenues
Season Tickets $46,904,000 *
Game Day Seats $4,312,000 **
Club Seats Fee $500,000

Corporate Revenues
Luxury Boxes $10,100,000 ***
Advertising $8,600,000 ****
TSN Jets Contract $7,000,000 *****
Naming Rights $3,000,000 ******
Merchandise $2,500,000

In-Game Revenues
Parking $0 *******
Concessions $3,500,000

Revenue Sharing
Central (Broadcast & Ent) $13,750,000 ********
Bottom 15 Revenue Share $0

Other Revenues
Waiting List Fee $525,000
Seat Deposit Int. $300,000
Seat Transfer Fee $250,000
15% Suite Fees $228,000

Direct Subsidies
City Entertainment Tax Refund $5,800,000
City Business Tax Refund $250,000
City Tax Assessment Savings $841,000
Prov. VLT Rev. $4,000,000

Total $112,360,000
-----------------------------

* Season tickets decreased $1.8M. Season ticket revenues were adjusted to 13,000 seats rather than 13,500 (can't believe I missed this!) at an average price of $82

** Game day tickets increased $2.15M. Game day tickets volume was increased from 500 to 1000. Note: there are some tickets that are reserved for the NHL (players, execs to buy – probably at ST prices) and others that are given to sponsors / advertisers. Rather than account for these unknowns here, I have assumed all seats are sold at face value ($98 avg.) and adjusted the advertising revenue accordingly.

*** Corporate Suite increased by $1.1M. Adjusted the suites number based on public information supplied by Hank in an earlier post. New numbers are based on 55 suites at $180k avg plus the 2 smaller party suites at 100k each.

**** Advertising reduced by $1.4M. Of this, $400k was deducted to account for the 100 game day tickets that are given to sponsors/advertisers. Deducted an additional $1M because some have argued that $10M is fairly aggressive and likely overstated. For comparison, CAR's 2010 Advertising revenue was $6.1M.

***** TV reduced by $3M. I have a really good source who has argued that the $10M estimate is overstated based on the fact that MTL's contract is $20M per year and they have more than 3x the audience and air all 82 games (vs TSN Jets at 60). Nobody knows the real number, but it should be more money per viewer than MTL's given that our contract is newer and MTLs is likely underpriced in today’s market. If you use MTLs contract as the basis, and account for viewership and games, you get $4.8M. I think $7M is closer given that EDM and CAL's are in the $8-$10M range and CAR is at $5.5M. Worst case, we’re conservative by $500k - $1M (some would argue we’re aggressive in other areas).

****** Naming Rights reduced by $500k. Although TNSE proclaimed that their deal with MTS set a new benchmark for middle NHL markets, its hard to argue that it would be $1M and 30% higher than the $2.5 that Quebecor just agreed to pay for naming rights on the new QC arena with an NHL team. I've taken the Quebec deal and added $500k (based on the fact that Quebecor’s deal is speculative based on them getting an NHL team while the MTS deal is actual).

******* Parking reduced by $387,000 to zero. Some posters have pointed out that TNSE does not own the existing surface and covered lots around the MTS Centre. This will change once the new hotel and development are complete on the north side of the MTS Centre, but until then its zero (unless others can demonstrate that TNSE does in fact have parking spaces).

******** NHL Central Revenues increased by $4.75M I have an excellent source who is very familiar with the business and finances of NHL hockey (same guy who argued that TV and others were likely overstated) has indicated to me that these revenues are much higher and that the new estimate of $13.75M is on the money. The template and rationale I used to estimate these revenues was actually created by him for another team.

Total change: + 414,800

Other Notes: Despite a lot of debate in this thread about merchandise and concessions, I have not made adjustments to these. I think we can all agree that merchandise this year was likely 4-5 times what it would be in a normal year but for simplicity, I’m sticking with $3.5M (which is already 5 times CAR’s 2010 public number of $667k). We very well could be high there on an ongoing basis. As for concessions, while there was a lot of good discussion and info provided by ps241 – when you use his numbers and factor in hockey vs non-hockey events, we’re in the ballpark or even a bit high ($6.67M total. 40% for hockey events = $2.6M). Also note I have not included the Moxies / Tim Hortons / Arbys leases.

Finally, the waiting list and seat transfer fees are "one-time" revenues for 2011-12 only. Thats $775,000 that will come off the books for next year and beyond. Other items will increase (ticket prices at 3% annually, etc). We're still in the same range but this projection is probably a lot tighter than the last. Still guesswork for the most part. I'm not married to these numbers at all - so if anyone has any better numbers I'd be happy to adjust.

I hope to be getting some additional information from a good source on non-players expenses so hopefully we'll have a decent handle on that in the coming days.


Last edited by surge1979: 08-26-2012 at 10:26 PM.
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