David Desharnais next contract
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08-26-2012, 11:03 PM
Join Date: Jun 2009
Originally Posted by
My estimate was from statistics 101. My apologies for not explaining it.
I'm expecting Desharnais to be a 60 point player just like last year. However, the intrinsic "statistical noise" on 60 is 7.75 (the square root of 60), which rounds to 8. That means I think that Desharnais will get between 52 and 68 points approximately 70% of the time, and between 44 and 76 points about 95% of the time. A player of constant skill can have and will have statistical fluctuations in production.
You can look up the normal approximation to the poisson distribution online or in any introductory statistics textbook. Or you can take my word that the intrinsic statistical noise on the number of points is the square root of the number of points.
Note that this is the intrinsic noise, it doesn't include the noise due to injuries, changing teammates, etc. Due to those factors you'll find that most players in the NHL have much larger fluctuations in the number of points than the square root of the average number of points.
In other words, you agree with me. Without statistics, I have stated that I believe DD
get 70 points next season. You just basically said the same thing. Why the heck have we wasted time arguing this rather than you simply saying you agreed in the first place??? Never mind, I do not need an answer, just the agreement. Lot of bloody posts and words to come to the same conclusion, though...
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