Statistics for defensive performance
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08-28-2012, 12:46 PM
Join Date: Aug 2012
Originally Posted by
There are a lot of Corsi-derived statistics out there, but I can't find any that measures the difference in Corsi of their opponents between their average and when they match up against the player in question.
Example: Daniel Sedin had a Corsi On of 21.09. Let's say that when he played against Rob Scuderi he only managed 13.09, this would give Scuderi a Corsi Opp of 8.00 vs Daniel Sedin. His total Corsi Opp would be the average of all the players he has been on the ice against weighted for icetime.
All the statistics required for calculating this is already being measured for use in Corsi and Qualcomp, why haven't this been put together before? I'd say it could be a good way of measuring a player's defensive performance. Of course it still doesn't account for playing style, but the guys that have bad Corsi Rel due to playing difficult minutes could be accurately measured in how good they are at containing the opposition.
This was something that just popped into my head last night, and after mulling it over and doing some calculations this morning I realized it was an incomplete measure of how a player affects the flow of play since the QoT wasn't accounted for.
A good measure would be the difference of expected Corsi and the Corsi of the player in question.
Expected Corsi would be: Corsi Qot - Corsi QoC. If your teammates have an average Corsi of -4 and the opposition an average Corsi of 2, the expected Corsi would be a -6.
If a player in that situation would have a Corsi of -2, it would be (-2) - (-6) = 4 point higher than expected, i.e. this player pushed the flow of play 4 points in the favour of his team when he was on the ice.
Corsi On - (Corsi QoT - Corsi QoC)
You also have to account for shot quality allowed on ice. (and yes I've heard all the arguments that SV% and SH% are not repeatable across the entire NHL population). I don't buy it for D men population though. They have much more impact of what goes on in front of the netminder than forwards who just add to the noise.
On ice SV% 5v5 the last 4 years:
Example A is Rob Scuderi (defensive Dman with relatively - corsi)
Example B is Alex Goligoski (offensive Dman) with + corsi)
The last year listed (08-09), they were both playing in front of the same goaltender, yet Scuds "lucked" (sarcasm) out by having a huge SV% advantage (.031) while on ice, AND while facing tougher qual comp.
There are players that allow a lot of low quality shots (Good defensive only Dmen) and players that allow few, but high quality chances (offensive defensemen). Then you have your elite that are good at both and your scum which aren't good at anything.
- # of shots allowed vs expected
- SV% of goalie on ice vs expected
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