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08-31-2012, 10:22 AM
  #14
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DL44 View Post
Right on... i was starting from stratch, so i'm sure there are a bunch of modifications that can be made to improve the formula.

Those offensive specialists were actually forced to play in their zone and did pretty well.
When i have access to my spreadsheet (work computer) I'll post their ranking in each category to show how they ranked...
conversely if there is another specific dman you were expecting to be ranked, post, i;ll post their numbers to show how they placed...
Robidas and Mitchell, for starters.

Quote:
Originally Posted by begbeee View Post
I'm not interested in numbers much, but how can you explain Visnovsky as TOP5 defensive defensman?
it looks like the factors chosen, although they all make sense, were just not weighted "properly". It was a subjective exercise and it appeared to work, to some degree.

the CORSI part is probably a major flaw. Just like people correctly say "you can't use +/- as an indication of defensive ability because goals for are half the equation", the same is true about CORSI, only with shots instead of goals. So these offensive specialists are getting shots to the other team's net and advancing the puck, and helping their corsi, but not really proving themselves defensively in the process.

also, I see that zone finishes minus zone starts is a factor. I think this is a mistake. If players like Matt Carle and Visnovsky are getting a defensive zone start, it won't be against the best players. therefore, they will defend the zone, and advance the puck for the next faceoff. Doesn't prove they're that good defensively. I would use raw zone starts. I know that doesn't say what happened on that shift, BUT the fact that their coach is using them in that situation on a regular basis says much more, IMO.

I'm not sure PDO is important to use. It's very random. It's true that some players will "earn" better PDOs by limiting shot quality against and creating higher quality scoring chances, but that isn't extremely common, and PDO is still a reflection of both ends of the ice, like CORSI.

DL44 - It sounds like you have these numbers all in a spreadsheet. If you do, try this subjective weighting and get back to me with a top-20:

=10*(G5)+6*(ZS)+4*(M5)+3*(AB5)

basically, who's getting the big minutes in the defensive zone against the best players, and to a lesser extent, who is still helping out on the CORSI side (keeping corsi in there does introduce a little bit of offensive "noise" but only about 6.5% of the total)

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