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09-02-2012, 11:23 AM
Gaudreauby Baker
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Originally Posted by oilsp1ll View Post
Well, look at it from my perspective. What else do I have to judge Tod Button by? Isn't the track record supposed to be exactly that, a record of past performance? I understand Sutter was an idiot but you can't just get a free pass forever. If Button is good at picking out talent, it's not like big Canadian kids that can hit aren't of value to NHL teams, he just never found any. And yes those players look nice and they're tracking decently but how many do you expect to actually make impacts at the NHL level? I know the Oilers have a very "deep" prospect pool right now, I'm not expecting all 8 of our top 8 prospects to make an NHL impact. For a Detroit or Nashville, 1/5 picks is a success. That is the class of the league - this is an extremely inexact science. I wouldn't suspect Calgary to have a rate increase of 5% to 25% immediately just because you changed "drafting philosophies."

So you say the philosophy changed in 2009 when Erixon was picked, there's been 4 drafts since then, let's assume a generous increase to a 15% hit rate on those 24 picks, you're still looking at 3.5, so 3 to 4 real NHL players. Of the prospects you named, Bartschi and Erixon look on track and then you will have one or two more if you are lucky and one of them is probably going to be a fourth line/bottom pair. That's just the way drafting works, not all your prospects reach their upside.
I understand what you are trying to say, and I understand that the draft really is a crap shoot and that a very small percentage of prospects are developed well enough to reach their true potential.

However, your original statement was that you believed that Jankowski WILL be a bust based on statistics from an old regime, scouting department, and draft philosophy.

And I agree with you on Todd button, his record as a scout has been extraordinarily poor with the Flames, but now with a larger scouting staff he is a much smaller part of "the whole".

I will also like to point out that perhaps Detroit and Nashvilles draft success is due to a strong foundation in player development rather than picking all the best prospects.

As of right now it seems that Jankowski is being given time to develop the proper way, playing in college to allow for more time to accumulate mass, but only time will tell how he develops and if he ever does.

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