David Desharnais next contract
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09-03-2012, 10:53 AM
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Canberra, Australia
Originally Posted by
Plekanec didn't produce more with weaker linemate... When he produced at the beginning of the season he had good linemate and he had a somewhat Ok pace.
To get the best estimate, you need to take the largest sample size available, not the smallest sample size available. Plekanec has been a full-time player since 2006-07, where he's played in a variety of situations. We have a very good sense of how good a player he is.
In statistics, the signal goes as the square root of the number of data points. Thus, six full seasons is about ~4.2 times more significant than one third of a season. When focusing on 25 games, you're reducing the statistical signal and precision in your assessment of Plekanec by a factor of ~4.2. It's less relevant and this should be common sense. A lot of players have hot streaks and cold streaks over 25 games, and it's not because their skill level goes up or down. It's just statistical fluctuations. There's a lot of luck over 25 games, ~4.2 times as much luck as there is over 6 full seasons.
We've seen Plekanec get a favorable year in 2007-08 like Desharnais had in 2011-2012, with favorable matchups and ozone starts and PP time. He repeated this two years later with Cammalleri and Kostitsyn.
We've seen Plekanec at his worst, in 2008-09, when he was making a lot of bad decisions, was demoted, and finished with 39 points.
There is some legitimate uncertainty with Desharnais because we only have 1.5 seasons of data. There are decent odds that he's actually much better than his 60 point pace, because 1.5 seasons is a small sample. You want to argue that, then that's fine. It's a legitimate argument to say DD will improve.
With Plekanec, however, we have six seasons of information. Offensively, we know that he can produce 70 points over a season when given good linemates, good zone starts, and good PP time. There's no debate about this.
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