Taylor vs Tyler
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09-04-2012, 12:22 AM
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Peoria, AZ
Originally Posted by
We are going to have to agree to disagree. I have to say though...you haven't really addressed a whole lot. All you do is tell me I'm cherry picking stats. Then bring up how Hall has slightly more ice time and how Seguin produced at a slightly more efficient rate. You "snip" or just out right ignore my other points that go beyond the 9 game hot streak.
I have addressed almost everything including teammates. Are you reading anything anyone is responding to you? I snipped so we didn't have 1 post taking up a whole page. My response was after the snip. I wasn't ignoring points, I just don't feel the need to directly respond to each of your cherry picked arguments. You continue to make it about a 9 game streak or pick out 10 game streaks. That doesn't prove consistency which also doesn't mean better. You say Seguin only had a 9 game streak and Hall had a 45 game streak. I and others have shown you other different sets of games including the whole season where Seguin was better. We have shown you the fallacy of your argument by reversing what you are doing and taking out Hall's hot streak while including Seguin's.
You say Seguin was by far the better 5 on 5 player. I bring up how it's a lot easier to be a good 5 on 5 player when you have a guys like Bergeron, Chara and just the entire Bruins team in general around you. Or a goalie like Thomas that can bail the team out. You didn't counter that point. You "snipped" it.
I have already said he had better teammates defensively. I didn't know I needed to analyze every play the whole season. Seguin was far better. If you are willing to admit that then maybe we can get into why.
Or how about puck moving defensemen? Hall had a rookie in Petry and Whitney playing on one ankle(a shadow of his former self). Do you know how important making plays off the rush is for a player like Hall? Correy Potter lead the Oilers defense in PP ice time. He was our go to offensive defenseman. He had 21 points. Have you even heard of him? I won't use it against you. Sometimes even I forget he's an Oiler and that's not even a joke.
The Bruins don't have a very mobile or puck moving defense. Based on PPG the Bruin's defense averaged 7 more points than the Oilers Defense. I have already said Seguin had some advantages being on the Bruins.
You told me Hall had better offensive line mates. I told you that while he spent a fair chunk of the season with Eberle and RNH, he actually did better without them and spent a large part of the season with Gagner and Hemsky. You said you know how to use behindthenet. I actually wasn't telling you anything that isn't common knowledge. Maybe you could have actually watched Hall last season.
And I'm the insulting one? You are a Bruin's expert who watches every game I guess. I guess there is no point in arguing with your biased expert eyes
You wouldn't need the website.
So you are saying that Eberle and RNH were better without Hall? Eberle was incredible offensively this year. Gagner didn't have his best season and Hemsky had his worst. What you are telling me isn't a very ringing endorsement of Hall. It looks to me like he is a selfish player that doesn't make teammates better.
It's also interesting that Seguin is a better 5 on 5 player than Hall because he had more points but for some reason you think he was at an advantage offensively playing with a rookie in RNH(for MAYBE 25 games) who actually put up 18 less even strength points than Bergeron at even strength. Maybe experienced linemates that bring a great overall game is an advantage? Especially 5 on 5?
I've never said it was because he had more points. I use rate stats not points. I have done an analysis combining ES & PP rates weighted by ice time and Hall's teammates came out ahead but barely. I have already told you Seguin had better defensive linemates.
You didn't even acknowledge that I said in general goal scorers are more highly regarded when all things are equal. Ignoring hot and cold streaks(since it's better to just ignore them). Seguin averaged 0.358 goals per game. Hall averaged 0.443(a 36 goal pace).
You are right I didn't acknowledge this yet. Use rate stats with both even strength and powerplay. Use Seguin's % of ES to PP time to equalize the advantage Hall had; and Hall comes out ahead 1.269 Goals/60 to 1.262 Goals/60. So Hall's biggest advantage isn't really an advantage. I don't see any proof that Hall is the better goalscorer. He has been the better powerplay goalscorer so far. Even strength Seguin was ahead 1.21 G/60 to .87 G/60. I think shootouts suck for evaluating hockey but since their overall rates were so close and the NHL uses shootouts as a tiebreaker lets look at that. Seguin was 6 for 12 this year or 50%. Hall was 1 for 4 or 25%. Seguin is 10 for 20 for 50% in his career. Hall is 3 for 11 or 27% in his career. No teammates or powerplay problems there. Skater vs goalie. Seguin has been twice the goal scorer.
Or how about the systems? You said it's easier to put up points in the Oilers system. You never told me why...and don't make Julien out to be Lamaire just to prove a point. The Bruins were a defensively responsible team. They weren't a trapping team. Defense wins championships. It also leads to turnovers and offense.
I don't think I have ever said that. I said he had better offensive teammates. Julien's distribution of ice time is the biggest reason why it is harder for the Bruin's top players to put up points. Seguin had under 17 minutes TOI. Most top forwards get 19 plus and 1 minute more of powerplay time. Having to be defensively responsible works both ways. I agree that good defense leads to offense.
You acknowledged that Hall was the better powerplay player but then suggested that it was only because Bruins PP was so bad...and that was everyone but Seguin's fault(
"The Bruins powerplay sucked but it was the rest of the B's players"
Yes. They have the players, but I don't know why they weren't good. It was coaching and the other players more than Seguin. Seguin had the highest rate of any fulltime forward. Horton and Peverley beat him slightly but missed 36 and 25 games. Seguin should have played more than he did and that would have put him further ahead in overall production.
You say even strength production is better than powerplay production. I agree...but being a slightly better even strength player(even that is debatable) isn't better than being one of the best powerplay players in the entire league. Hall was 5th in powerplay goals while missing 21 games.
Yes it is better than one of the best powerplay players. That is why Seguin ended up with better production despite getting less ice time on the powerplay. Because ES is far more important. It makes up so much more of the game time and goal scoring. Also, nice way to skew the argument and ES wasn't debatable this year. Seguin is only slightly better? While Hall is one of the best in the league. You could also say that Hall was only slightly better while Seguin was one of the best in the entire league at ES which again is more important. Seguin was 10th in the league to 82nd for Hall at ES. Hall was 21st in the league on the PP while Seguin was 100th. If you take out players with less than 1 minute per game Hall is 10th and Seguin is 76th.
You said Seguin doesn't throw hits because his line always has the puck. Somehow Ovechkin found time to throw 215 hits last season. You're insulting everyone's intelligence with comments like that. I'll admit that Seguin has come a LONG way since his junior days but he's still very much a perimeter player. Hall very much isn't a perimeter player...and it's much easier to reign a guy in than teach a guy to be aggressive. One advantage to Hall's aggressiveness is that only 10 players that played 40+ games drew more penalties per game than him last season. Seguin ranked tied for 106th. He's a much harder player to play against. That shouldn't even be debatable.
I never said that. I said it is harder to throw hits when you always have the puck. Using Ovechkin isn't a good argument. He had negative Corsi numbers so he had more opportunities to throw hits. I'm not insulting anyone's intelligence because I didn't say that and I've never said that Seguin was physical. Hall drew more penalties. Chalk up another point for you. I don't think that means that he is much harder to play against. He isn't that physical either. Maybe if he was throwing 200 hits a year like Brown or Doan you could say he is harder to play against.
...but everything I've tried to discuss doesn't matter because on top of this I have one other point about how I go about seeing who was the more consistent player. And even if you don't like how I've come to that conclusion, you've yet to prove to me that Seguin was actually the more consistent player. You brought up Malkin but I don't even know how to respond to that one. It made no sense. You actually think I'm saying that because Malkin would go up and down (probably between playing like a 90 point player and 150 point player) while Hall was pretty constant at about a ppg player the majority of the season that I think Hall is the better player? You really think that's what I'm saying? Are we having a discussion here or are we just going to try and pull out every trick to "win" this debate? I'm not getting sucked into a position to argue a point I don't agree with just because you're twisting my words around. You think Seguin was the more consistent threat? That's fine. I strongly disagree though. Feel free to prove it to me without a sarcastic response where you mock me and show how easy it is to manipulate numbers. If Seguin really was the more consistent player last season, show me.
I brought up Malkin to prove that consistency doesn't equal better. I'm not trying to prove if Seguin was more consistent. He probably wasn't. This isn't about consistency, it is about who was better. I'm the one trying to pull out every trick? I'm not trying to mock you, I'm showing that what you are doing is wrong and that it is easy to manipulate the numbers when you cherry pick. Picking out streaks doesn't mean anything. Here is a better measure of consistency. Hall scored a point in 61% of his games last year to 56% for Seguin. That is going by points which isn't the best measure. If you want to take Hall because he might get a point in 5 more games out of 100 (with more ice time and PP time) then go ahead. That doesn't mean that he was the better player.
...and please don't bring up the playoffs. Seguin's first playoffs was better than anything either of them have done because he had a point every 19:39? That alone just proves how much of a stretch you argument is. He was on the 4th line, playing against 4th line competition. He had 6 points in 2 games and then 1 point in the next 11 games. Nevermind how Hall fits into this. You think that was better than what Seguin did this season?
I make one observation that I thought was neat and you use that against me. That makes my argument a stretch? I didn't even use it against Hall. That was in a paragraph where I was showing how fair I have been instead of using Stanley cups: Seguin - 1, Hall - 0 like some fans would use. He did do it against weak competition but he was also a rookie playing 4th line minutes. Take out that comment if you want. It has nothing at all to do with my argument and wasn't used against Hall.
You're accusing me of cherry picking stats but all you've done is say that Seguin needs 29 less seconds to put up a point and that Hall averaging 36 more seconds on the powerplay was the end all, be all between the two. You're also cherry picking bits and pieces of my argument by "snipping" them.
I have done a lot more than just showing the overall production. I have shown you how you are cherry picking and what happens when you do the reverse. I have shown many other "streaks" that show that Seguin was better over longer periods of time including the whole season and ES.
I was going to point out everything that you chose to ignore but instead I'll just put it in bold.
I'll apologize right now. It's going to make my long post even longer.
I don't know how to include what I had responded to earlier. I didn't just ignore. I think I have now responded to everything.
...but I'm the only cherry picker in this discussion? You're chalking it up as speculation because you don't have anything to say. Just say I don't know if you don't. I'm not going to criticize you. We're talking about what happened last season. Not specifically about if the players switched teams. We're breaking down their situations and weighing the pros and cons.
We are talking about what happened last season. You brought Hall being able to play on the Bruins into it. I have never said that he couldn't.
Anyways. We can be done with this. I'm fine with agreeing to disagree. Feel free to comment on anything that I put in bold from my own post if you want.
Yes you are the cherry picker. I have plenty to say. You want me to say that I don't know? How about you stop speculating and say you don't know. I'm not going to respond to every nonsensical argument that you make.
Here is your statement that started this.
"...but that 2-3 week period in November when Seguin had 10 goals in 9 games while Hall had 0 goals in 8 games(it all happened at the same time) was the only time Seguin was clearly the better player this season and possibly ever. Get passed the basic stats line and look at their game by game stats and how the season really played out...and it's clear Hall is the significantly better offensive player at this point."
I don't care if you agree with me on who was better or who you would take but I have proved that your original statement was clearly wrong and I have responded to more things as they have been brought up. You have asked me to prove things to you and asked directly why would I take Seguin. I have shown you that in many ways.
Last edited by sjaustin77: 09-04-2012 at
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