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09-06-2012, 06:04 PM
  #125
Talks to Goalposts
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Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Edmonton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
As I said in my OP, Kaberle helped the team, but it was too little to overwhelm the tidal forces of mismanagement pulling us to a lottery spot.

With Spacek on the team, we might have been able to select Alex Galchenyuk with the 2nd overall pick :-)


I'm not sure how advanced the analysis is. I should look into it. Thank you for the link.
Most analysis of shootout ability shows it to be essentially random for both shooter and goaltenders. Whether a guy was good one year has no bearing on weather he'll be good the next year.

Not that there's no ability involved, just that there are so few SO shot events that random chance drowns it out. That the completely unskilled rarely get to shoot is another reason for this.


SO are basically a more exciting coin toss to randomly assign a winner in the event of a tie then something based on a difference in talent at the NHL level. Which is why SO wins or losses can be completely disregarded for predicting future performance and assessing how good a team is. (Bad news New Jersey and Boston, good news Montreal and Carolina).

Its also a good reason to eliminate SO's from a team's plus minus.

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