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09-08-2012, 07:52 AM
Ville Isopää
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2012-13 Ratings discussions

I guess we might as well open up a new thread for the ratings. I'll give a short review of how the goalie ratings were done. I don't have time to answer why every single goalie is rated exactly how they are. Just look at the stats and you should find 99% of the answers of why your goalie is rated a 71 and not 84.

As there has been a lot of discussion on Brian Elliott I'll use him as an example.

In the past 4-5 years or so, a 41 and 10 game threshold was used to divide the goalies in to starters, backups and depth goalies as the EN wasn't working properly. That 41 game threshold was based on average games played of the past 3 seasons with a weight of 50-30-20% on the different seasons or 70-30% if the player played just 2 seasons. With Elliott playing 55 games in both of the previous seasons, anyone could calculate in january that under the system used in the past he needed to play 27 games to get an average of 41 games and his 38 games would have given him an average of 46,5 games.

After long discussions, the admin team decided to go with a new approach and use the stats of 164 games or for goalies last 2 seasons (i.e. last 164 games of their NHL teams). The split was the same as before with 70-30% weight on the two seasons. With that Elliott played an average of 43,1 games rather than the 46,5 games that he would have averaged in the old system. In the end he would have rated as a starter no matter if we use the 2 or 3 year stats or if we use DU to limit games played for goalies or the 41 and 10 game thresholds to divide goalies in to Starters, Backups and Depth goalies.

Moving on to the base of the ratings. In rating the goalies in the skill categories (SK, AG, RB, SC, HS, RT and PH), the stats used are 70-30% averages of the past two seasons, with the individual stats being Save percentage, Goals Against Average, Shutouts, Wins, Minutes Played, Vezina Votes and Team Defence (measured by ranking the teams by how many shots they allow during the season).

The goalies are then ranked in each category depending on how good they are compared to the 107 other goalies that played during the past two seasons and given a score of 1-107 in every category but Vezina, where only 14 guys recieved votes. The rest were given a 28 score on it instead of 107 which would have put too much weight on the Vezina votes.

To get a final ranking of the goalies in the skill ratings an average score was calculated for the different stat categories to create the final ranking of the goalies. Every position in the ranking equals a drop of 0,5 points in the average skill rating of a goalie compared to the goalie ranking ahead of him. With the help of a handbook on the strenghts of the goalies the rating points were distributed to every goalie to reflect their strenghts and weaknesses. When rating the goalies, the average ratings were raised slightly from last year, as the skater ratings had gone up from last year.

As for the EN ratings they have changed a lot since last year in a hope to limit the unnatural way that starters have been used in the past.
In the NHL the top goalies played 73 games, 3 goalies played 70 or more, just 13 played over 60 games and only 22 played over 50 games.
In the HFNHL we had 6 starters playing less than 70 games. Khabibulin 69 games, Quick 68, Boucher 63, Lehtonen 60, Varlamov 58 and Mason 57. The rest played 71 or more games.

The current EN ratings are still to be tested, so they could go up or down depending on the results of the tests, but the ranking of the goalies compared to eachother in the EN is based on minutes played during the past two seasons and is most likely what it will be in the end.

I'm not going to post the ranking of every stat, but here's how the goalies ranked up against eachother overall. This is not a final ranking of the OV's as there are other things like PS, SZ, EN, DU, etc. that also count towards the OV. This is just the ranking for the averages of the skill ratings.

You will find guys like Rask, Schneider, Holtby, Bishop and Khubodin ranked higher compared to where they would have been in the past. On the other side of the coin there are guys like Roloson, S. Mason and Khabibulin who would have been in the late 20's with the old system rather than in the 45-50 region. Remember that these "bad starters" will still be able to play more games at their highest level compared to guys like Rask, Holtby and Bishop who have lower EN's and will be limited to something close to what they played in the NHL over the past two seasons.

Rank Player
1 Henrik Lundqvist
2 Jon Quick
3 Pekka Rinne
4 Tim Thomas
5 Mike Smith
6 Roberto Luongo
7 Carey Price
8 Jaroslav Halak
9 Miikka Kiprusoff
10 Antti Niemi
11 Brian Elliott
12 Cam Ward
13 Marc-Andre Fleury
14 Ilya Bryzgalov
15 Jimmy Howard
16 Kari Lehtonen
17 Ryan Miller
18 Cory Schneider
19 Tomas Vokoun
20 Niklas Backstrom
21 Jonas Hiller
22 Jose Theodore
23 Tuukka Rask
24 Johan Hedberg
25 Semyon Varlamov
26 Martin Brodeur
27 Craig Anderson
28 Ondrej Pavelec
29 Devan Dubnyk
30 Evgeni Nabokov
31 Josh Harding
32 Corey Crawford
33 Braden Holtby
34 J. Giguere
35 Michal Neuvirth
36 Ben Bishop
37 Joey MacDonald
38 Scott Clemmensen
39 Martin Biron
40 Curtis Sanford
41 Jhonas Enroth
42 James Reimer
43 Jonathan Bernier
44 Anton Khubodin
45 Mathieu Garon
46 N. Khabibulin
47 Anders Lindback
48 Jonas Gustavsson
49 Robin Lehner
50 Steve Mason
51 Dwayne Roloson
52 Thomas Greiss
53 Jason LaBarbera
54 Matt Hackett
55 Chris Mason
56 Allen York
57 Richard Bachman
58 Peter Budaj
59 Sergei Bobrovsky
60 Martin Gerber
61 Al Montoya
62 Mike Murphy
63 Brent Johnson
64 Cederick Desjardins
65 Brian Boucher
66 Alex Stalock
67 Drew MacIntyre
68 Ray Emery
69 Anders Nilsson
70 Brian Foster
71 Justin Peters
72 Jacob Markström
73 Curtis McElhinney
74 Ty Conklin
75 Marty Turco
76 Rick DiPietro
77 Kevin Poulin
78 Dan Ellis
79 Ben Scrivens
80 Jeff Deslauriers
81 Antero Niittymaki
82 Henrik Karlsson
83 Andrew Raycroft
84 Alex Auld
85 Leland Irving
86 Pascal Leclaire
87 Chris Osgood
88 Peter Mannino
89 Sebastien Caron
90 Brad Thiessen
91 Dustin Tokarski
92 Nathan Lawson
93 Patrick Lalime
94 Mikko Koskinen
95 Mike McKenna
96 Michael Leighton
97 Iiro Tarkki
98 Jussi Rynnäs
99 Yann Danis
100 Mark Dekanich
101 Mike Brodeur
102 Matt Climie
103 David LeNeveu
104 Chad Johnson
105 Timo Pielmeier
106 Shawn Hunwick
107 Thomas McCollum

Now, if someone feels that they have the time to create a better system of rating the goalies and feels they have spare time to create those ratings I think everybody is open to new ideas.

Last edited by Ville Isopää: 09-08-2012 at 08:20 AM.
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