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09-15-2012, 11:23 AM
  #98
squidz*
dun worry he's cool
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: South of the Border
Country: United States
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
Squidz, how are you calculating escrow percentages and actual payrolls? Are you estimating HRR or do you have actual figures? I can't seem to make your numbers jive with anything I've been crunching all day.
The 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 clawback rates were an attributed quote from a linked article, so they're right. What I was calculating for 2012-2013 was current (cap hit) spending versus $3.3BN in revenues (technically the estimate from the league is $3.27368BN [$62.2MM salary midpoint * 30 teams / 57% share]). The current salaries were from yesterday via CapGeek. Most teams were at or over 22 players (in fact, several were at 24) so I felt comfortable in using those as approximate final rosters. I then calculated how much those would need to be rolled back, and adjusted back to actual salary (that is to say, don't forget that earning 53% of HRR would be a clawback of 6% with a 50/50 split, not a clawback of 3%).

Last season was a bit different. I used a round $3.0BN for HRR because that's what I've seen reported by the league. I utilized CapGeek's archives, and included bonuses in the calculation (I believe that's what's required to translate CapGeek's numbers, but I'm not 100% certain this is the case and would make a huge difference). After those two calculations, it's the same logic for getting to the escrow rate. I'm not completely comfortable with this number because of the previously noted caveat. That's why I've since focused on the two confirmed clawback rates.

Some known weaknesses in the estimates:

Rosters are not final. To use the Wild as an example, maybe Dowell gets sent down and Brodin gets called up. Brodin is paid more than Dowell so that would increase this year's gross pre-escrow salary. However, several teams are listed with issues the other way (or simply have more than the maximum 23 players listed). Columbus has Ryan Murray and his $3.525MM contract listed, but he's expected by many to not see NHL time this season. I feel it evens out.

IR is not factored in. Frankly, I don't know exactly how IR does get factored in. Are payments to players who are on IR counted against the 57%? I would assume so, but I'm not certain. Also, I don't have a reasonable estimate for how much IR salary replacement will be for the league over an entire year. I would expect it would be low, but it is not being accounted for.

Real salary versus cap hit. This is the only one I'm actually a little concerned about. I have been forced (since I can't find a complete list of actual salaries for 2012-2013) to use cap hit instead of actual salary. This could be a big deal as players like Parise and Suter are earning far more than their actual cap hit this year. However, players like Komisarek, Giroux, and ever player on an ELC with bonuses actually earn less salary than their respective cap hit. I have no idea how many contracts there are like this, or whether they even each other out. I would suspect the range of effect could be significant, however, not significant enough to bring that figure anywhere near that 2008-2009 mark.

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