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09-16-2012, 12:56 AM
  #8
overpass
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
We know a higher percentage of overall offense comes from first liners now than in the 1980s. Is this not still true at even strength?
This is true at even strength. The distribution question is an interesting one.

Here are some numbers for a selection of NHL seasons since expansion.

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1968 28.8% 25.9% 23.7% 22.1% 19.7% 17.8% 16.6% 14.6% 12.3% 9.4% 7.2% 5.6%
1973 30.0% 27.0% 24.3% 21.7% 20.3% 18.2% 16.3% 13.9% 12.0% 9.7% 7.0% 4.9%
1978 29.1% 23.7% 21.1% 19.2% 17.7% 16.6% 14.7% 13.4% 11.9% 10.0% 8.1% 5.9%
1983 27.9% 24.4% 21.6% 18.8% 17.1% 15.3% 14.1% 12.7% 11.1% 9.7% 8.1% 6.4%
1988 28.8% 24.5% 21.4% 19.5% 17.3% 14.9% 13.9% 12.0% 10.8% 9.1% 7.6% 6.3%
1993 30.4% 24.8% 21.4% 19.8% 17.4% 15.1% 13.4% 11.5% 10.3% 8.3% 7.3% 6.2%
1998 31.9% 24.6% 21.3% 19.3% 17.3% 15.5% 13.2% 11.5% 10.0% 8.8% 6.9% 6.0%
2003 30.9% 26.6% 23.5% 20.0% 17.5% 15.5% 13.5% 12.2% 10.7% 9.0% 7.5% 6.2%
2008 32.6% 27.5% 24.0% 21.1% 17.8% 16.0% 14.2% 12.3% 10.7% 9.2% 7.8% 6.2%
2012 30.5% 26.4% 23.6% 21.0% 18.1% 15.3% 13.6% 11.9% 10.0% 8.4% 6.7% 5.2%

Year 1-3 (First line) 4-6 (Second line) 7-9 (Third line) 10-12 (Fourth line) 1-6 (Top six) 7-12 (Bottom six)
1968 26.1% 19.9% 14.5% 7.4% 23.0% 11.0%
1973 27.1% 20.0% 14.1% 7.2% 23.6% 10.6%
1978 24.7% 17.8% 13.3% 8.0% 21.3% 10.7%
1983 24.7% 17.1% 12.6% 8.0% 20.9% 10.3%
1988 24.9% 17.3% 12.2% 7.7% 21.1% 10.0%
1993 25.6% 17.4% 11.8% 7.3% 21.5% 9.5%
1998 26.0% 17.4% 11.5% 7.2% 21.7% 9.4%
2003 27.0% 17.6% 12.2% 7.5% 22.3% 9.9%
2008 28.0% 18.3% 12.4% 7.8% 23.2% 10.1%
2012 26.8% 18.1% 11.8% 6.8% 22.5% 9.3%

The percentages posted are for the average percentage of team even strength goals for which the Nth highest even strength scoring forward on the team received a point.

So in 1968, the average team had the top EV scorer post a point on 28.8% of even strength goals. This number rose by 1973, dropped and reached a low point in the 1980s, and then rose to a high point in the late 90s and 00s.

Compare Wayne Gretzky's 1982-83 season to Jaromir Jagr's 1997-98 season.

Gretzky scored 133 even strength points in a context where 1. The average team scored 228.9 even strength goals, and 2. The average team leading ES scorer recorded a point on 27.9% of team ES goals.

Jagr scored 64 even strength points in a context where 1. The average team scored 148.9 even strength goals, and 2. The average team leading ES scorer recorded a point on 31.9% of team ES goals.

These simple adjusted points adjust for 1. but not 2.

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