View Single Post
Old
09-16-2012, 09:40 AM
  #115
Viqsi
carrying the flag
 
Viqsi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: The Scary Internet
Country: United States
Posts: 20,384
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Viqsi
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrolikFan67 View Post
since a lot of people think that the way it would be weighted in the case of a lockout may be a little unfair, perhaps give less balls to teams like pittsburgh for being very good and a team like the oilers because of all the 1st overalls, for fun, i decided to make my own weighting scale. it would take forever to see how many balls every team would have and then punch it in on the draft website, but if anyone would like to see how many balls they'd have with my scale please post it, i'd love to see if it ended up being more on the fair side
I opted to just figure it for everybody, since I just happened to have points percentage charts already open for unrelated reasons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrolikFan67 View Post
first calculate how many points on average your team has earned in the last 5 years to determine how many balls they begin with...

60-69pts = 4 balls
70-79pts = 3 balls
80-89pts = 2 balls
90-99+pts = 1 ball
this will determine where you start off at.
Results so far:
3 balls - Columbus, Edmonton, Long Island, Winnipeg
2 balls - Carolina, Colorado, Florida, LA, Minnesota, Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Toronto
1 ball - Everyone else.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrolikFan67 View Post
add additional balls if you fit the following:
if youve missed the playoffs 3 times in the last 5 years, add 1 ball
if youve missed the playoffs 4 times in the last 5 years, add 2 balls
if youve missed the playoffs 5 times in the last 5 years, add 3 balls
3 balls added to Edmonton, Long Island, Toronto, Winnipeg.
2 balls added to Columbus, Dallas, Florida, Minnesota, Tampa Bay
1 ball added to Buffalo, Calgary, Carolina, Colorado, St. Louis
All else lose 1 ball per the rules below.*

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrolikFan67 View Post
after that, we'll subtract balls if you fit the following:
however many times a team has had a 1st overall in the last 5 years, they lose that many balls (ex. oilers lose 3)
any team that has made the playoffs 3+ times in the last 5 years loses 1 ball
any team that has won the stanley cup in the last 5 years loses 2 balls
1st overall picks: Long Island, Tampa Bay, Edmonton (x3).
3+ playoff appearances: see above.
Stanley Cups: Detroit, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Boston, LA.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrolikFan67 View Post
this will give you your final ball count. the lowest you can have is 1 (ex. if your down to 2 balls and youve won the stanley cup in the past 5 years or any of the other ways to lose balls, you go down to 1, not 0).
Based on this system...
6 balls (9.1% chance of 1st overall): Winnipeg
5 balls (7.5%): Columbus, Long Island, Toronto
4 balls (6.1%): Florida, Minnesota
3 balls (4.5%): Carolina, Colorado, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Edmonton
2 balls (3%): Buffalo, Calgary, St. Louis
1 ball (1.5%): Ottawa
"0 balls" (actually 1): Anaheim, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, New York (owned by CBJ), Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Jose, Vancouver, Washington.
"-1 balls" (actually 1): Los Angeles (owned by CBJ)
"-2 balls" (actually 1): Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh
GRAND TOTAL: 66 balls.

I opted to explicitly include the ones that dropped below 1 just to show the effect some of the penalties have. Technically those last four categories are all "1 ball".

We'd have what amounts to 7 balls (10.6%) under this system thanks to having LA's and New York's picks. Basically, our odds of getting the 1st overall don't change much at all - we were at about 9.8%, and we're barely a full percentage point higher (which is an improvement, but having recently lost a 50/50 draw and having a history of losing draft lotteries, this is not cause for celebration among Jackets fans ).

The chances for a few other teams, tho, are somewhat better. Compare and contrast with the "standard lottery" chances as calculated by Ashasx earlier in this thread in post #5: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...87&postcount=5

Hopefully this is enlightening.


*: I was considering suggesting having 4+ playoff appearances be the cutoff for losing one ball instead of 3+ - that would mean Anaheim, Phoenix, and Ottawa don't "lose" balls for having 3 playoff appearances. Only Ottawa is substantively affected, though - they'd have had 2 balls otherwise.

__________________
Remember - when you're a hockey fan, it's not "reckless driving", it's "good forechecking".
"Viqsi, you are our sweet humanist..." --mt-svk on the CBJ boards

Thanks, Howson, for cleaning up MacLean's toxic waste. Welcome, Kekalainen; let's get good things built!

Last edited by Viqsi: 09-16-2012 at 05:09 PM. Reason: added total balls, % chances | added link to % calcs by Ashasx earlier in this thread | comment on Ottawa | broken quote! :(
Viqsi is offline   Reply With Quote