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09-16-2012, 09:56 AM
  #117
canovin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
I opted to just figure it for everybody, since I just happened to have points percentage charts already open for unrelated reasons.



Results so far:
3 balls - Columbus, Edmonton, Long Island, Winnipeg
2 balls - Carolina, Colorado, Florida, LA, Minnesota, Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Toronto
1 ball - Everyone else.



3 balls added to Edmonton, Long Island, Toronto, Winnipeg.
2 balls added to Columbus, Dallas, Florida, Minnesota, Tampa Bay
1 ball added to Buffalo, Calgary, Carolina, Colorado, St. Louis
All else lose 1 ball per the rules below.*



1st overall picks: Long Island, Tampa Bay, Edmonton (x3).
3+ playoff appearances: see above.
Stanley Cups: Detroit, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Boston, LA.

this will give you your final ball count. the lowest you can have is 1 (ex. if your down to 2 balls and youve won the stanley cup in the past 5 years or any of the other ways to lose balls, you go down to 1, not 0).
Based on this system...
6 balls (9.1% chance of 1st overall): Winnipeg
5 balls (7.5%): Columbus, Long Island, Toronto
4 balls (6.1%): Florida, Minnesota
3 balls (4.5%): Carolina, Colorado, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Edmonton
2 balls (3%): Buffalo, Calgary, St. Louis
1 ball (1.5%): Ottawa
"0 balls" (actually 1): Anaheim, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, New York (owned by CBJ), Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Jose, Vancouver, Washington.
"-1 balls" (actually 1): Los Angeles (owned by CBJ)
"-2 balls" (actually 1): Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh
GRAND TOTAL: 66 balls.

I opted to explicitly include the ones that dropped below 1 just to show the effect some of the penalties have. Technically those last four categories are all "1 ball".

We'd have what amounts to 7 balls (10.6%) under this system thanks to having LA's and New York's picks. Basically, our odds of getting the 1st overall don't change much at all - we were at about 9.8%, and we're barely a full percentage point higher (which is an improvement, but having recently lost a 50/50 draw and having a history of losing draft lotteries, this is not cause for celebration among Jackets fans ).

The chances for a few other teams, tho, are somewhat better. Compare and contrast with the "standard lottery" chances as calculated by Ashasx earlier in this thread in post #5: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...87&postcount=5

Hopefully this is enlightening.


*: I was considering suggesting having 4+ playoff appearances be the cutoff for losing one ball instead of 3+ - that would mean Anaheim, Phoenix, and Ottawa don't "lose" balls for having 3 playoff appearances. Only Ottawa is substantively affected, though - they'd have had 2 balls otherwise.[/QUOTE]

I'd go with this template since it gives the Oilers 3/66 chances better than 1/50.

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