Thread: Confirmed Signing with Link: Ducks sign Fowler [5 years/$4 Million AAV]
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09-16-2012, 07:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
Really? Because "make the jump" doesn't sound anything like consistent improvement. Given the context, it sounds like you're saying he breaks out. That isn't what I said at all. If Fowler breaks out, his value would increase substantially.

I thought it was obvious. A 20 year old player is going to improve. Your entire argument seems based on the possibility that it may not happen. Just how likely do you think that is?
Most advance, some don't. My argument is he is not worth $4m based on current play. Take age out of it, how much would a 30 yo 30-40 point offensive Dman with a history career of posting -25 to -30 year in year out fetch. How many of those guys are even in the league?. Alternatively look at it this way, on some teams Fowler would have been sent back to junior round out his game.

That's why I don't think he's not a $4m Dman yet, but that is just my view, based entirely on what he's done to date and ignoring age. He's getting paid for something he has yet to achieve, which is fine since he's young and very talented. What are the 3 outcomes of this contract
* he'll be a legit top pairing D in 3-4 years and a huge bargain if he progresses (I think this probably)
* if he progresses but then stalls and becomes a $4m 2nd pairing Dman.
* If he doesn't progress enough then he's an overpaid 3rd pairing D or worse.

I like the contract, I'd love to have Fowler on that contract on Canucks as his potential is enormous and he'll probably reach it, I'm just saying it's not a steal it's a reasonable bet each way with edge side hedging a bit.

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