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09-18-2012, 06:50 PM
Doctor No
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Quality of Stanley Cup Playoff Competition

An offshoot from the new Patrick Roy thread in the HoH forum...

Is anyone interested in doing a rigorous estimate of the quality of each Stanley Cup champion's postseason competition? Some ideas:

I'd say that a fair metric would be (some estimate of) a team's likelihood of winning the Cup prior to the start of the playoffs (given that you know their opponents in advance). So let's say that the 2012 Kings had the Canucks, Blues, Coyotes, and Devils on their docket, and their a priori chances of winning each round were 30%, 45%, 50% and 60% (I note that this is the crux of the analysis). Then, we'd say that the 2012 Kings had a 4.05% chance of doing what they ultimately did (winning the 2012 Stanley Cup).

That seems like a very tough set of competition (of course, I made up the probabilities). How does it compare to others'?

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