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09-18-2012, 07:03 PM
Doctor No
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Flaw #1 - I realize that the metric that I propose would undervalue the competition of a truly great team. (Here's proof: holding the competition steady, if we double the ability of the Cup-winning team, then the a priori probability of winning Cup would go up substantially, even though the competition didn't change).

I'll propose a modification to my proposed metric: prior to the start of the playoffs, what is the probability that an average NHL team from the season in question could win the Cup while facing the playoff schedule that the Cup-winning team played?

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