The Lockout (is over!!!!!)
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09-19-2012, 07:40 AM
Coo coo ca cha!
Join Date: Jun 2008
Ok, did some capgeek-ing and some calculations.
Using the revenue projection that established the 70 mil cap, with 57% being roughly 62 mil (the cap midpoint). Then 50% is roughly 54 mil, 43% is roughly 47 mil (on a per-team basis obviously).
Teams are currently spending on average about 59 mil in salary this season, bump it closer to 60 mil once guys like O'Reilly, Benn, Subban etc. are signed.
Does anyone know exactly what % of their salaries players put in escrow? Assuming its 5%, that bumps projected average salary down to 57 mil or so. Based the above projections that's about 52% of revenues.
So if the owners decided to go down in steps and would give the players 52-53% of revenues this season, the players wouldn't likely end up losing any more than they would have planned to via escrow (it would just be worst-case scenario rather than business as usual).
Now this is assuming the teams that are currently below the floor are either allowed to stay there (If the midpoint gets lowered to 54 mil, the floor would be like 38 mil so they'd be fine) or get to the floor via trades so that the league impact is salary-neutral. Might also have over- or underestimated some RFA salaries but whatever.
And of course I don't know how LTIR guys are dealt with for escrow... do they have to pay into it? Do they count for the % of revenues given to the players? Regardless, just a quick and dirty look at it. If the players play it right they could probably come up with a proposal that doesn't hurt too bad while still being palatable to the owners.
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