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09-19-2012, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I'm not sure an accurate measure would only be based on the last regular season.

Best example I can think of: in 1995, the 8th seeded Rangers beat that 1st seeded Nordiques. Should have been considered a major upset, but a lot of people were not surprised. Rangers were "the defending Cup champions who underachieved during the regular season" vs "a young team that is there for the first time."

Do you think it's worth bringing in the previous playoffs, or is that too much complication for a minor variable?
There were indications from the regular season that the Rangers were better than their record, and the Nordiques worse.

For example, the Rangers had a shot differential of about +250 during the Regular Season, whereas the Nordiques were even.

Not to say that the Rangers were necessarily the better team - Quebec (Colorado) certainly did better the following year.

Just that a wholistic analysis (even if confined to the 1994-95 Regular Season) discloses that the teams were probably pretty even at the time.

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