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09-20-2012, 12:18 PM
  #90
Mike8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
Personnally, I'd like to see a high-end prospect, get out of a league that he dominates rather easily and be confronted with a tempo, a style, a schedule, that is closer to the next big thing. I look at your list and see that most 4-year guys that indeed went and became NHL'er only became serviceable in the NHL. We can agree that we expect Kristo to be more than serviceable.

I have a hard time believing that a guy like Kristo who we will need to see a real offensive touch to his game, be able to go from a league like the NCAA (not dissing the league by the way, I'm a fan of it) and the NHL and be able to automatically adjust his speed, timing, precisions and be the type of player we'd need him to be. Obviously, he will grow with time and will most likely be that player in 2 or 3 years. But with 1 AHL year......chances are he'd have a head start to be really contributing the year after instead of adjusting like he'd be next year.....IF he makes it.
I don't think we can agree that we expect Kristo to become more than serviceable. It depends on your definition of serviceable, I suppose.

As far as that list showing that most 4-year guys became only serviceable: I don't think so. And I don't think you read the conclusions/correlations if that's what you took from the list. The only reason it may seem like a lot of the 4-year guys became merely serviceable NHLers is because they were drafted to be serviceable players: they were low-ranked, mid to late round picks. The players who were stars at their respective colleges and ranked highly in their draft years, but stayed 3-4 years (such as Booth, Backes, McDonagh, Oshie, Petry, McBain, Goligoski, Carle, Petry, Paul Martin) all did well. If they stayed 3 years only, they stayed longer in the AHL than if they played 4 years in the NCAA.

Frankly, your last paragraph speaks to the fact that you did not read the correlations/conclusions at all (or you disagree with them and chose not to address that point). Many, many 4-year players took very little time to adjust to the NHL after they turned pro.

The only real correlation between spending 3 years and 4 years in the NCAA is that players who spent 3 years would then spend more time in the AHL. (all else being roughly equal, in terms of level of success in the NCAA). So while you may 'feel' it's more beneficial for an NCAA player to outgrow the league and play in the AHL, there's no evidence to support this. Further, Kristo hasn't outgrown the NCAA, and very few players do, in fact, outgrow the NCAA--even borderline bluechip prospects rarely outgrow the league.

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