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09-20-2012, 03:42 PM
Feed Me A Stray Cat
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Originally Posted by DatBoyJPP View Post
Bullpens have huge turnover which is why it isn't as repeatable as you would like
It's not just turnover. Relief pitchers are enigmatic from year to year in general because they a) aren't as good as starters, and b) don't pitch a large sample of innings each year.

Say an average reliever pitches 50-60 innings in a season...that's like 30% of what a starter pitches. Now think about how most starters go through peaks and valleys in their performance throughout a season. For a relief pitcher, that peak, or that valley, can be their entire season.

Which is a big reason why relief pitcher performance is so volatile, and why teams often don't hold onto relief pitchers for very long.

In the end I think it further confirms the point that winning one run games isn't sustainable in the long run. It's not as if Baltimore has four Chapman's in their bullpen. The actual talent there isn't overly spectacular. I will bet extreme amounts of money that Jim Johnson and Pedro Stropp, with their mediocre K/BB ratios, will not post sub 3.00 ERAs next year.


Compare the ERA to the FIP and xFIP for Baltimore's relievers. Every single relief pitcher is outperforming their peripheral statistics, some by a healthy margin. Expect regression by Baltimore's bullpen soon, whether it be in the last month or next season.

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