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09-20-2012, 06:37 PM
  #18
Ohashi_Jouzu
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iain Fyffe View Post
That's not evidence, because it can be explained by the fact that the playoffs are a short-series format, where any team has a chance to beat any other team. A certain number of upsets are expected every year, simply because of the short series format.

You'd have to demonstrate, rather than assume, that a team won because of the matchup, rather than normal variance. Same applies to the regular-season matchups; normally the number of games involved is so small that you can't draw reliable conclusions from them.
So are you suggesting that the results of head-to-head matchups in the regular season are irrelevant when trying to "determine" the relative difficulty of any given team's path to the Cup? I think there are plenty of 6th seeds (for example) out there who definitely looked forward to facing some teams rather than others based on their confidence (I'd assume) gained from having beaten them during the regular season. I'm really curious now as to the percentage of teams who lost the season series but went on to win the playoff round in which they met again. I also wonder how much the home vs away factor figures in there.

I dunno, it seems like something that could at least supplement something equally uselessly basic on its own such as "quality of competition" based simply on the "fact" that playing an 8th seed should be easier than playing a 7th seed, which is easier than playing a 6th seed... etc.

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