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09-21-2012, 08:32 AM
Feed Me A Stray Cat
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Originally Posted by DatBoyJPP View Post
This is a game played by human beings, not a coin flip. Come on now
Whether it's a coin flip, or a game played by humans, it's the same concept - probability. Baseball isn't as static as a coin flip, however we have over one hundred years of data to analyze, so we can end up making pretty good determinations about different aspects of the game. One of them is that it's not possible for a team to continually win 80% of their one-run games.

The Baltimore Orioles, based on their true talent level, have a certain probability of winning a game. They also have a probability of winning a game by one run. Research has shown that a team's probability of winning a run one game is close to 50%, simply because of the large amount of luck involved in doing that. Baltimore has won almost 80% of their one run games.

Think about how ridiculous that is for a second. The best team in baseball MIGHT win 60% of their overall games. Winning more than 60% of ANY type of game, no matter how you categorize it (one run, close and late, blowout), is highly unlikely. Yet some people expect Baltimore to continue to win 80% of one-run games?

This really has nothing to do with stats. It's simple common sense.

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