Thread: Proposal: Montreal-Florida
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09-23-2012, 09:48 PM
  #38
palindrom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VinnyC View Post
Or that Patrick White > Ehrhoff and Bergfors + Cormier > Kovalchuk, right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by topdog View Post
And i'll add Daigle was the next comming.
Some fans and their hype players.
Maybe we should start a thread about Proven vs Potential.

the way i see it, there is not a big difference, its all about the expectation we have for player to perform in the future.

the fact that a player is "proven" is not a guarantee he will continue to perform the way he did in the past, but it help evaluate the odds that he will do it again.

To summarize, i would rather have a prospect i expect to play great than a proven player i expect to play only well.

If my scout expect Bjugstad to become close or better than Plekanec, i have to take the deal as a prospect doesnt even need to become as good as the proven player to make the deal worthwhile. The advantage to have his right many year before he become UFA and often on a cheaper contract make it for some of the difference in skill.

And if Bjugstad become a Plekanec or even better then its a steal. It often worth the gamble if my scout think so.

its like the lottery, a Proven 2$ for a potential 1 000 000$ never ever worth it if the odds are the 6/49 one (one chance out of 13 000 000 or something like that).
But a Proven 2$ worth a potential 100 000 000$ if we keep the same odds.

so if i evaluate that Bjugstad have 20 % chance to become a total bust, 50% chance to become close to the player Plekanec is and 30% to become a Plekanec or better i take the deal.
(taking into account i expect Plekanec to decline in the next few year...he already declined last season. Plekanec now in my opinion doesn't worth the Plekanec we have seen in Montreal in his prime.)


Last edited by palindrom: 09-23-2012 at 10:03 PM.
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