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08-04-2012, 02:16 PM
  #3
Hivemind
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -31- View Post
Coaches often pull their goalie at ~1:00 mark of the third period when trailing by a goal. I always wondered if that specific time could be supported by evidence. But I never had the general goal scoring rates (6 on 4, 4 on 6, 5 on 5) to come up with a time that would optimize the chance of tying the game.
This paper may interest you. Not exactly what you're talking about, but related and it talks about several other papers on the issue (haven't been able to find public links to most of them). Most famously there was also a paper in 1986 that produced the formula:
t=-{ln[(-L1*LB+L2*LA)/LA(L1+L2-LA-LB)]}/(LA+LB)
where L1 and L2 are the ES scoring rates of the two teams, L1 is the scoring rate of team 1 with a pulled goalie, and L2 is the scoring rate of team 2 when team 1 has pulled its goalie.
This paper reviews and expands upon that 1986 paper, and finds that (depending on the scoring rates of the two teams), the ideal time to pull is between 1.57 and 2.82 min remaining in the game. Obviously, it does not factor in game situations in that analysis (or factors like exhaustion, line changes, etc.). I would be interested in something expanding upon that to look at line matching and scoring rates of particular lines and defensive combos.


Somewhat related, I'd be curious to see what's a better strategy when on a 5-on-4 powerplay and your opponent commits a delayed penalty. Immediately turn the puck over to start the 5-on-3 or try to prolong the 6-on-4 as long as possible (thus extending the total time with a 2 man advantage)?

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